marcusnhds
2021-04-18

$Altimeter Growth Corp.(AGC)$


Personally i will not touch this stock currently but there is pro and con to this. there are the reasons:


Pro:

1) Heavily funded by heavy weights and support by Singapore state investment group Temask. Which give them access to one of the most develop countries in South east Asia.

2) The founder is part car empire family in Malaysia. Which prove that Grab will have 2 countries easily covered.


Cons:


1) It yet to turn profit and lose margin is at 47%!!! Here the thing, it use to be a ride hailing business but this business is brutal in margin. In South East Asia transportation is realtive cheap and the most expensive city like Singapore an average ride is just USD $7 - $9 dollar excluding surcharge (late night onwards). So to get a share per ride, the margin has to be extremely low. This was more evident during the previous years when Grab and Uber was doing priicing wars with each other, untill and agreement was made with Uber and Grab mergering together for south east asia. So when the war is over and consumers are so use to the cheap ride offer and Grab is not offer the same incentive anymore what happens? Grab cannot increase it price too much and thus the second point begins.


2) With ride hailing cannot give the revenue, grab decide to move into food delivery, loans, digital banking and etc…

The only most proftiable path for them is digital banking and ewallet, which means with low margin business model. The only solution to increase each of it product offer is to reduce and control bottom line while still trying to expand.

There is why they are lose margin is at 47% (more or less) and uber is at 17%. Think about this.


3) The founder get 60% voting right despite holding 3.3%. Seriously has anyone did not learn from “Travis Kalanick” incident?? It also show that greed for power, so this makes me question about the governance of the company. Somehow i always use Airbnb CEO Brain Chesky has the currently modern benchmark for leadership, managment and governance. So Grab does not fly with me.


4) Valuation and time to reach profitablity is not attractive. With huge amount of pipe investors and warrants at $10, no way as a investor i will take a risk at even at $10 or $11.


5) It has equal weight rivals as Gojek is merging with Tokopedia. Why, these 2 companies has major controlling stake in indonesia market. Which is one of the largest market in South East Asia.


Overall, if this stock drop below 10 i might consider and if is drop to low 9 dollars or more i will “grab” a little more. Other than that it is a red red “X” for me.



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Comments

  • KinKat
    2021-05-17
    KinKat
    Losses are mostly coming from GrabFood. Main attraction for Grab would be Financial Services with L/T tgt EBITDA 30% which includes the Digital Banking license in S'pore. S/T, I hv same tgt <$10 [汗颜]
    • marcusnhds

      Yep, in the end only the private investor will be earning the most while the retail are left holding the bag. From what i see it will be a rollcoaster ride.

  • HLPA
    2021-05-13
    HLPA
    you dont seem to know GRAB well enough. they are big and the future is very bright indeed
    • marcusnhds
      Well, if you dun believe go and buy. Not harm in holding the bag in this current situation. By the way I am base in SG. So of course I know what grab is about.
  • Juliusgreyy
    2021-05-13
    Juliusgreyy
    Good pointer on this. But grab is moving agreessive into intergrate their grabpay. U can do more now. Their big goals is a mighty app in years to come. not just hailing app. (Based in sg here)
    • marcusnhds
      Ya maybe in the future for now at this current moment with the sell off. It is ridiculous to buy it anything below 9 dollars. If you are in for a long run and wait till 2023 go ahead. 
    • marcusnhds
      To add on, I read thier investor presentation and I am base in SG too.
  • Officer
    2021-05-17
    Officer
    Thanks for sharing. The competition headwinds are strong. Do u think Grab have a moat and strategic advantage beyond backed by the Sg State investment firm?
    • marcusnhds

      I am not saying that grab is not company but with rivals hold on a bigger market and they have red tape to other markets. I do not see much growth vs current valuation.

  • Victorcml
    2021-05-15
    Victorcml
    Well didn't we all say the same thing about FB when it IPOed. whoever who have held FB stock from IPO till now would have benefited well
  • IsaacC
    2021-05-14
    IsaacC
    when they have positive margin, it would not be $10 anymore
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