$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Investor Meetings Takeaways
Investors continuously adjust their target prices based on a variety of factors, including market fluctuations and the development of Tesla as a company. Below is the analysis related to the recent increase of the target price to $370.
1. Targeted Price and Risk
Rating and Price Target: Deutsche Bank rates Tesla as “Buy” and raises the price target from $295 to $370, mainly attributing greater value to its autonomous driving efforts. The refined valuation framework includes FSD sales, robotaxi operations, and OEM licensing fees in the “Robotaxi” bucket. Adjusted multiples for Energy and Robotaxi based on market conditions and growth expectations.
Risks: Faces risks in automotive (demand softness/stagnation), energy storage (less intense currently), mobility and robotics (execution and regulatory risks). Leadership risk due to Elon Musk's importance is also noted.
2. Business Highlights
New Models and Volume Growth (2025):
“Model Q” to launch in 1H25, priced <$30k (or $37,499 without US EV tax credit). Other new vehicles in 2H25, potentially including a 3-row Model Y variant in China, all built on existing lines.
Management targets 20 - 30% volume growth in 2025, contingent on flawless execution and supply chain scalability, with China expected to scale up faster than N. America. Mexico plant plan depends on geopolitics and tariffs.
Margins in 2025: Product launches may disrupt profitability initially, but could be offset by lower COGS of affordable products. Margins also hinge on ASP and demand curve. Focus is on growing volume and achieving overall FCF breakeven.
3. Operational Developments
Robotaxi Operations: Plans to launch in CA and TX in 2025 using existing 3/Y vehicles and an internal ridehail app. Expects to need teleoperators initially. Regulation is the main barrier; hopes for federal rule updates. Will start with company-owned fleet and adjust supply dynamically.
Cybercab Development: Unboxed manufacturing aims for ~$20 - 30k COGS per vehicle. CyberCab production in 2026 will pioneer this process. Investments in service/cleaning/charging infrastructure planned, with TX and CA likely first.
FSD Progress: V13 rolled out to early access users, showing 3 - 5x improvement in miles between critical interventions. Targets unsupervised FSD launch (Q2 - Q3 2025) with robotaxi operations. Faster improvement due to increased GPU compute power. FSD attach rate rising; more free trials planned.
4. Competition Analysis
US/Europe: Sees no cost/scale competition. Compares favorably to Waymo and Cruise re: sensor use, data generation, and vertical integration. European regulations pose challenges.
China: Observes similar E2E vision-only approach by competitors. Working on data export approval for E2E model improvement.
5. Optimus Evolution
Deployment and Performance: Aims for >1k internal deployments in 2026, limited to basic industrial tasks initially.
Development and Manufacturing: Intelligence improving, trained like FSD. Targets BoM of ~$30k; engineering iterating on cost reduction.
Sales Strategy: Considers HW + SW sales or leasing. Confident in economic viability for labor replacement.
6. Other Considerations
Megapack Demand: Strong, with >100% growth expected this year. New Shanghai factory and potential US expansion (up to ~40 GWh) in 2025.
Legal Matter: Appealing court ruling on Musk's pay package.
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