Here's my $GRAB investment thesis.🧵

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$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ are building the everything app in Southeast Asia - ride hailing, food delivery, digital payments, and more.

Here's a very brief overview of my bullish case:

1. Huge TAM.

2. Great fundamentals

3. Strong cross-selling

4. Diversified portfolio

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$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ have had an incredible 2024 up 73% over the last 12 months.

In the last 12 months alone, they've managed to:

- Grow revenue 17% 、

- Reach GAAP positive income with $15m profit in Q3

- Buy back $500m in stock

- Reach $76m in free cash flow

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$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ have a huge TAM.

They operate in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia, Myanmar.

They reported 42 million monthly transaction volumes which is about 5% of the total Southeast Asian population.

Southeast Asia is growing with a resurgence in tourism (up 22% YoY) so this 5% has a huge room to run.

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Fundamentally, $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ are very strong for a company in their part of the lifecycle.

They have:

- $6.1 billion in case (up $500 million from Q2)

- Net cash liquidity is $5.8 billion.

Their profitability metrics are also heading in the right direction meaning we will soon hit an inflection point.

- Operating income increase $55m in Q3 (to a loss of $38m). This profitability will continue to improve with efficiency and scale. Note that in Q1 2023 they had losses of over $200m.

- Adjusted FCF hit $76m. 12 months ago this was NEGATIVE $240m.

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ will follow the $Uber(UBER)$ story that went from a cash burner to a cash machine. Once FCF continues to improve, we will likely see huge increases in the share price.

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$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ are incredible cross-sellers.

Users who use $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ for Food and Mart show 4.9x more order frequency compared to single-service users.

This has meant that Mart grew 1.7x faster than Food did. Consider this for any future additions to the portfolio that $GRAB make.

Also, consider this for the TAM. Once they become more saturated, they still have huge strides they can make with their consumer base because of their cross-selling capabilities.

Think of the data they are collecting on both ends here. That'll be huge going forward.

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I think $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ have a very strong business model that should withstand tough economic conditions.

They have:

1. Mobility which is growing at 17% YoY.

2. Deliveries which is growing at 13% YoY.

3. Financial services which is growing at 34% YoY

Looking at financial services...

- Total loans increased 38% YoY

- Digibank deposits were up 202% YoY with 1 million new customers being existing $GRAB users.

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$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ are growing revenues at 17% YoY with analyst estimates for EPS sitting at 0.30x by 2028.

I think this figure will be much higher with:

- Strong growth rates in Southeast Asia

- Continued GAAP profitability

- 20% revenue growth rates

- EBITDA and gross margin expansion

My investment model sees $10+ stock by 2028 which is ~100% from today.

I'll show my investment model on my newsletter.

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