$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$  TWO FUTURES

Tonight's a turning point. Yesterday, SMCI retraced to just above RSI Swing Indicator with 200 EMA, setting up a potential support line at $36-38 that targets a breakout to $60. But this possibility hangs on the thread of NASDAQ100 annual reconstitution today, with the potential for delisting.

Been seeing various interesting comments. Here's my take. 

SMCI has two possibilities:

1. NASDAQ100 not delisted. SMCI takes off to $60, beforw retracing to $46 to form a new support line for another rebound.

Action: no delisting => sell at $55-60 and accumulate when it retraces to mid-$40s.

2. NASDAQ100 delisted. Sends shockwave down to $20s. Expect  short-term drama, insignificant compared to clearing current scandals. Delisting presents opportunities to accumulate shares at $20-40 range, as SMCI works toward filing its delayed annual and quarterly reports by 25 February 2024. This is an important date: should SMCI set things right, expect prices to skyrocket to $60.

Action: delisting = long-term DCA down & hold position

All these assume limited market manipulation/unusual whale activity/algorithmic trading among institutional investors. Hard to say; they collectively own at least half of SMCI's shares. Such activities--artificially locking prices down, false breakouts, undermiming market confidence--has happened to other tech stocks in recent months.

Also, watchout for US-China trade war under Trump in Jan-Feb!