25 bps cuts are certain now, the Fed might be juggling two fires: stubborn inflation and a looming economic slowdown. The 2025 dot plot forecasting fewer cuts signals one harsh truth — the Fed expects rates to stay higher for longer. This could mean borrowing remains costly, corporate debt refinancing becomes brutal, and consumer spending slows. The market, ever forward-looking, might start pricing in recession risk instead of rate cut optimism.

In short: If the Fed pivots too slowly, we risk a hard landing. If they pivot too fast, inflation rears its ugly head again. The real plot twist? 2025 could be the year the market finally stops clinging to the Fed as its ‘savior’ and starts facing reality. [Surprised]