Consolidation Rally.
Just when other US stocks are on a rage, charting new ATHs almost on a daily basis, one of my favourite stocks $Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ undergone a consolidation instead.
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On Mon, 16 Dec 2024, it fell further by -1.68%, closing at $11.74. (see below)
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On Tue, 17 Dec 2024, it rose marginally by +0.86% to close at $11.70.
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On Wed, 18 Dec 2024, it ‘crashed’ by -10.19% to close at $10.40. Worst fall in a very long time.
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On Thu, 19 Dec 2024, it fell again by -3.28% to close at $10.33.
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On Fri, 20 Dec 2024, it rose by +1.37% to end the week at $10.38.
At one point in time, it went as low as $10.21 intraday.
Past month:
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As of 20 Dec 2024, NU has been down by -22.54%.
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Correction commenced since its 25 Nov 2024 peak of $14.23 and it is still ongoing ?
Analysts’ Consensus ?
As “one of the world's largest digital financial services platforms“, NU has been the topic of several research reports:
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$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ boosted NU’s price target to $15.00 from $14.50 and gave it a "Neutral" rating in its research report on 19 Aug 2024.
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KeyCorp boosted NU’s target price to $17.00 from $15.00 and gave the stock an "Overweight" rating in its research report on 14 Nov 2024.
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Itau BBA Securities cut NU’s rating to "Market perform" from an "outperform" in their research note on 14 Nov 2024.
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Susquehanna boosted their price target for the digibank to $18.00 from $16.00 and gave it a "Positive" rating in a report on 14 Nov 2024.
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$Citigroup(C)$ lowered NU’s rating to “Sell” from “Neutral” and lowered their target price to $11.00 from $14.60 in a research note on 02 Dec 2024.
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Collectively, one investment analyst has rated the stock a “Sell”, while four have assigned a “Hold” rating and five have issued a “Buy” rating to the stock.
Based on data from MarketBeat, NU currently has an average rating of "Hold" and an average price target of $15.63.
NU’s Metrics:
NU vital financial ratios:
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Market capitalization of $49.892 billion. (as of 20 Dec 2024)
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P/E ratio of 31.73 vs a general healthy P/E ratio range of 20-25.
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PEG ratio of 0.61 vs general healthy PEG ratio is anything below 1.0
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Beta of 0.99 vs the golden ratio of anything below 1.0 is considered less risky.
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Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20 vs general consensus is that it should not be above a level of 2.0.
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Its 50-day moving average (ma) stands at $10.30 and 200-dayma at $10.32.
Apart from its P/E ratio, everything else about NU Bank is well within the healthy zone.
Institutions Inflows & Outflows
Does NU’s price movement have everything to do with institutions’ buying & selling:
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Massmutual Trust Co. FSB ADV boosted its stake in shares of NU by +287.9% in Q3 2024. It now owns 1,916 shares of NU, valued at $26,000.
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Carolina Wealth Advisors LLC bought a new position in NU in Q3 2024 worth about $44,000.
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Toth Financial Advisory Corp purchased a new stake in NU in Q3 2024 worth $55,000.
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GAMMA Investing LLC lifted its position in NU by +81.9% during Q3 2024. It owns 4,119 NU shares valued at $56,000.
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Huntington National Bank increased its position in NU by +86.3% during Q3 2024. It owns 4,601 shares of the company's stock valued at $63,000.
In summary, it is safe to conclude that NU is a favourite with hedge funds and institutional investors since 84.02% of NU stocks - are held by them.
What Else ?
Below are some consensus drawn from various internet posts:
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Citibank’s analyst noted NU’s stock price had appreciated by +44% YTD.
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And it is high P/E ratio of 31.73 and 7.51x price-to-book value (P/BV).
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These valuations are “rich”, in the context of NU's operational deceleration in Brazil.
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NU’s Q3 2024 earnings parameters also indicated a deceleration in net interest income/net interest margin (NII/NIM).
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Other factors included (a) slight decrease in average revenue per account (ARPAC), (b) higher cost of funding in Brazil and Mexico, and (c) sequential decrease in NII, in the credit card segment.
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Lastly, concerns that alternate revenue streams, such as payroll loans in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, might take longer to compensate for the slowdown in credit card and personal loan segments in Brazil, fueled pessimism in NU.
Good News.
On 16 Dec 2024, NU announced a total investment of US$250 million in Tyme Group.
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NU was the lead with $150 million investment in Tyme Group’s series D round of funding.
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M&G Catalyst Fund subscribed $50 million.
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Existing shareholders took up the remaining $50 million.
About Tyme Group ?
It is one of the fastest-growing digital banks globally, with 15 million customers and operations in South Africa and the Philippines.
With this investment, NU becomes a minority shareholder in Tyme Group.
Nubank, CEO & Founder, David Vélez, shared:
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Since the beginning of NU, we have believed that the future of financial services globally is of digitally native companies.
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Having met with dozens of teams across different geographies, and we think that Tyme Group is extremely well-positioned to be one of the digital bank leaders in Africa and Southeast Asia.
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It will be exciting working with Tyme and share many of NU’s learnings of scaling this model to hundreds of millions of customers.
Tyme’s History.
Founded in 2019, offers banking services through digital and physical channels.
They partner with stores to set up kiosks and have bank staff to help customers.
Their goal is to provide affordable banking to millions of people in emerging markets like South Africa and the Philippines.
They are looking to expand to other countries like Singapore and Vietnam when the time is right.
Tyme Group, Chairman /Co-founder, Coen Jonker concluded:
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Tyme's partnership with Nubank will help them improve their banking services and expand their business.
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Particularly in areas such as (a) data analytics, (b) credit risk management, (c) product development and marketing – levers we believe are key to achieving leadership in our markets.
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He is excited about this new investment and believes it will help them reach more people and improve their financial lives.
My viewpoints: (mine only)
In investment we are always reminded not to put all eggs in one basket.
Looks like NU Holdings is taking that to heart in their latest venture, one that is miles away from its strong hold presence of South America market.
With any investment, there are always “associated” risks.
For now, we can only assume that NU’s homework & assessment of Tyme Group have been spot-on and will yield results as soon.
Personally NU is still a keep (for now) as a medium to long term investment.
However, Wall Street does not take too kindly to, longer term investment results, always on the lookout for quickfire profits announcements.
To NU’s CEO David Vélez, you k(NU)w what needs to be done & Pronto !
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Do you think NU’s investment in Tyme Group will pay off soon ?
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Do you think investors should have more confidence in NU and not sell-off in the immediate instance ?
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