Palantir, Nvidia and Broadcom are the best-performing technology companies in the S&P 500 this year. Now the question is whether they can repeat the feat in 2025.
There are plenty of forecasts across Wall Street for all three companies but one way of sizing up the range of outcomes is by looking at the outliers—the most bullish and most bearish targets—which can help gauge the opportunities and risks.
Palantir Technologies
Current stock price and movement in 2024 to-date: $79.54, 363% gain
Highest price target — $75
Lowest price target — $11
After an absolutely stellar run this year, software company Palantir has outstripped even the most optimistic views on Wall Street, as it sells its artificial-intelligence platform to governments and increasingly to commercial customers.
Among analysts polled by FactSet, Wedbush’s Dan Ives has been a consistent bull and backed the company’s ability to keep gaining from the AI boom, recently raising his target price to $75. That’s below its trading price as of Friday morning but Ives isn’t forecasting any kind of collapse, as he reckons it can emulate the success of software and cloud-computing company Oracle in the age of AI.
At the other end of the scale is RBC Capital Markets’ Rishi Jaluria, who has a target price of $11 on Palantir shares. That’s based on an enterprise value-to-revenue multiple of seven times for his forecast of the company’s top line in 2025, which he noted is well below its current multiple of 33 times on the same metric.
For Jaluria, it’s a question of “the risk-reward skewing unfavorable” for Palantir. He noted in his latest research note that the company’s most recent quarterly earnings strength was driven by government contracts, which were influenced by the timing of certain deals, while commercial growth slowed down.
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Nvidia
Current stock price and YTD move: $135.90, 175% gain
Highest price target — $220
Lowest price target — $135
The most bullish analyst on Wall Street for Nvidia stock is Rosenblatt Securities’ Hans Mosesmann, with a target price of $220 on the chip maker. Mosesmann is backing continued robust sales for Nvidia’s hardware to power AI data centers, with demand outstripping supply for its Blackwell chips.
While he does note there’s a risk of gross margins being hit over the next few quarters during the Blackwell ramp up, he’s looking past that and toward its fiscal year 2027 by which time the company should have moved past supply constraints. His price target is based on a price-to-earnings multiple of 44 times his forecast for the company’s earnings that year.
In contrast, the most bearish analyst on Nvidia is D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria, who has a target price of $135. That’s linked to his wider view of the technology sector, where he believes customers such as Microsoft will eventually be forced to rein in their investment in AI infrastructure
“Despite demand in the near-term continuing to be strong, we still believe a decline in demand for Nvidia compute is inevitable as customers begin to scrutinize their ROI [return on investment] on AI compute,” Luria wrote in a research note.
Broadcom
Current stock price and YTD move: $238.03, 113% gain
Highest price target — $260
Lowest price target — $190
Broadcom has become another AI chip favorite due to its work helping major technology companies design custom processors. KeyBanc’s John Vinh has a $260 price target on Broadcom stock, based on a price-to-earnings multiple of around 35 times his forecast for the company’s fiscal 2026 earnings.
Vinh is backing Broadcom to continue in its “leading position” as a custom AI chip provider, noting it had been selected by two more large customers to help develop their next-generation AI chips. The new customers are likely to be Apple and ChatGPT-developer OpenAI in his view, on top of existing clients Google-parent Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and TikTok-parent ByteDance,
On the more pessimistic side, Morningstar analyst William Kerwin has a $190 fair value estimate on Broadcom shares. While Kerwin is also impressed by the company’s AI progress, the difference seems likely to be due to a shorter-term focus, with the analyst assigning an adjusted price-to-earnings multiple of 30 times to his forecasts for the company’s fiscal 2025 earnings.
“To buy Broadcom shares today, we believe investors have to believe in the midpoint or upper end of management’s SAM [serviceable addressable market] and expect Broadcom to retain a 70% share of this opportunity,” Kerwin wrote in his most recent research note.
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