Sonsonkok
02-23

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@Barcode：$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 🅱🅴🅰🆁🅸🆂🅷 📉📉 👀 Earnings on Monday after the 🔔 🚨📉💥 Tempus AI, Bearish Catastrophe Looms, $43 Plummet by March 💥📉🚨 “Even Yoda can’t save this Titanic freefall…” Hold tight, traders, $TEM’s hype train just hit an iceberg, and the bears are steering it straight toward $43 by March. Tempus AI ($TEM) rocketed +180% YTD (X chatter, February 2025), but its 6-month chart screams capitulation. With Q4 earnings set for 24Feb25, insider sell-offs peaking, and technicals unravelling, this could be the ultimate bull trap. As someone who’s chased AI moonshots, only to dodge bear traps at the last second, I’ve got a bad feeling about this one. Let’s dissect this Death Star of a setup, with surgical precision. 📊 Technical Breakdown, The Chart’s Screaming “Game Over” The $TEM chart (as of 23Feb25) is a Guns N’ Roses tragedy, beautiful ascent, brutal collapse. A textbook rising wedge 🟥 (green trendlines from July 2024’s $30 to February’s $85.71 peak) shattered on 20Feb25, with Friday’s $68.09 close (-11.25%, WKRB News) plunging below the key $73 support. The purple volume bars 📉 spike on down days, confirming seller panic, while the red horizontal line at $43 marks November, December 2024 support, the abyss ahead. 🔑 Key Chart Levels: • Resistance: $70 🟡 — Now a brick wall after Thursday’s 14.5% drop, aligning with the upper wedge. • Support: $55 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement), then $43 🔴 ~ The chart’s red line at $43 ties to prior consolidation and the wedge’s measured move. Indicators Flashing Red: • RSI: Crashed from overbought (72) to 48, signalling momentum’s death. • MACD: Bearish crossover, locking in the downtrend. • Volume Dynamics: Thursday’s 12.34M shares traded, below the 14.1M average, but spiked on the drop. X posts echo “sellers unloading.” No bounce confirms bearish control. 💡 $43 Target Logic: The wedge’s $30 height (peak $85.71 to base $55.71) subtracted from the $73 breakdown point gives us $43. This aligns perfectly with the red line intersecting late-2024 support, making $43 the ultimate downside magnet. Short-term, Choppy decline. Medium-term, A Titanic plunge straight to $43. 🧮 Fundamentals, A House of Cards in AI Healthcare $TEM’s AI diagnostics dazzle, but its financials? A horror flick. Market cap’s $10.72B, yet the company is bleeding heavily. Vitals: • EPS (TTM): -$8.52 😱 • ROA: -58.65% • P/S Ratio: 16.74 — 🩸Nosebleed levels compared to; • Guardant Health ($GH) ~8x • Illumina ($ILMN) ~5x • Exact Sciences ($EXAS) ~7x Earnings Preview — 24Feb25: • Expected EPS: -$0.20 • Revenue: $203.1M • Analyst Ratings: 🟢 7 Buy | 🟡 4 Hold | 🔴 0 Sell (Yahoo Finance) • Median 12-Month Price Target: $55 — a far cry from the $85.71 peak. Growth is slowing — +35% YoY compared to 150%+ in 2023, while losses hit a staggering $801M in 2024. The $600M Ambry Genetics buyout (Business Wire, February 4) promises long-term growth but comes with dilutive shares and a $105M EBITDA loss, straining liquidity. 💥 In a cooling AI sector, $TEM’s premium is a glaring red flag, and this house of cards is wobbling. 🚨 Insider SOS — “Abandon Ship!” Cue the Jaws theme. Insiders are bailing like it’s 1975 Amity Island; • CEO Eric Lefkofsky: Sold 169,482 shares on 5Feb25 at $66.70-$68.07, plus 243K earlier at $70-$87 (~$19M total, TradingView). • CFO & COO: Dumped 31,780+ shares on 18Feb25 (WKRB News, February 23). • Total Insider Sales (12 months): $278.71M (Mi Valle). Pre-earnings sales this massive scream lack of confidence. X chatter is loud with, “Insiders know the iceberg’s coming.” Confidence? Sinking like the Titanic’s deck chairs. 📉 Market Context — Tech’s Wobbly Tightrope The Nasdaq is up +8% YTD (as of 23Feb25) — but cracks are forming. High-growth, unprofitable tech like $TEM is faltering as hopes for Fed rate cuts wane (Bloomberg, February 21). • AI hype is cooling, with $NVDA and $PLTR off their recent highs. • $TEM’s P/S at 16.74 looks absurd against $SPY’s P/E of 22. • Inflation is creeping up — 2.5% CPI (February 21) — triggering AI sector rotations. 💡 Rising inflation, sector rotation, and overvaluation, a recipe for a liquidity crunch. 🗓 Earnings Roulette — Hope or Hype? February 24 is D-Day. $TEM’s Q4 earnings could either save the ship or sink it further. Past Quarterly Performance: Quarter End EPS Estimate Actual EPS Beat/Miss Surprise % Sep 30, 2024 -0.31 -0.25 Beat +19.4% Jun 30, 2024 -1.30 -0.63 Beat +51.5% Mar 31, 2024 -0.66 -1.47 Miss -122.7% Even with past beats, the slowing growth and insider selling don’t paint a bullish picture. Without a $210M+ revenue beat and stellar guidance, $43 seems inevitable. 💡 Actionable Trade Setups — Ride the Bear or Dodge the Blade • Short Play: Enter below $70, target $55, then $43. Tight stop at $73. • Swing Long (Risky): Consider a bounce at $43-$45 if earnings surprise — targeting $55. • Key Watch: If $55 breaks, $43 is almost guaranteed. • Options Play (Bearish): March 21, 2025, $65 puts — implied volatility ~45% could yield 2x-3x if $TEM hits $43. 💡 Newbies, watch volume spikes. Pros, hedge with puts or short CFDs. 🔥 The Bottom Line ~ My Take $TEM is a sinking star in a galaxy of overhyped AI plays. The chart’s rising wedge breakdown 🟥, insider exodus, and shaky fundamentals scream “sell.” Short interest is climbing, market winds are shifting, and the upcoming earnings feel like a last-ditch hail Mary. My call? $43 by March, a 37% drop from here. As Han Solo once said, “I’ve got a bad feeling about this.” 🎤 Tiger Traders: Are you shorting this ride to $43, or banking on an earnings miracle? Drop your setups below, let’s battle it out Thunderdome style! @TigerGPT: Is the plummet inevitable and what can you share about earnings on Monday? 📣 Please Like, Repost, Follow for razor-sharp setups and market zingers. Let’s outsmart the galaxy together! 🍀 Happy trading ahead! Cheers BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @TigerWire @TigerPicks
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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  • Barcode
    02-23
    Barcode
    Happy trading ahead! Cheers BC 💰📈🚀🍀🍀🍀
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