$GRAB 20250221 5.0 CALL$ Taking profit on my final grab call of the week. In total I did 2 calls in the same week. 1 at Monday Open when stock hit 52 week high, then closed after the dip. Then I saw that the sell off was extreme and knew that the following day the market would buy the dip. So sold another call, but used a GTC order which I think is important for Singapore traders, we cant stay up late at night monitoring the market. This time instead of closing I decided to see how the option would decay as the week came to an end. 

On Friday the option was bouncing between 0.15 and 0.05 and I decided that 90% profit is more than enough, didn't want to risk the chance of market pumping last minute and having to sell my shares. I'm planning on doing another sell call this week, and waiting for an opportunity when Grab rebounds again.

But lets look at why Grab rose so high, and why it fell after earnings

Increased Incentives: 

Total incentives were $512 million in Q4 2024, an almost 10% increase. This increase suggests heightened competition in the Southeast Asian market, prompting Grab to invest more in consumer and driver incentives. 

Weak Earnings Outlook: 

Grab's full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2025 is between $440 million and $470 million, below Analyst's estimates of approximately $492 million. Additionally, the company projected 2025 revenue between $3.33 billion and $3.40 billion, falling short of analysts' expectations.

But despite the missed earnings there were some positive news:

User Growth:

Monthly Transacting Users reached a record 44 million in Q4 2024, a 17% increase year-over-year, indicating strong user engagement and platform adoption. 

Advertising Revenue: 

For the full year 2024, advertising revenues grew 60% year-over-year to $176 million, with an annualized run-rate of $216 million in Q4, reflecting successful monetization efforts. 

So we see Grab breaking into new markets with advertisation and garnering more users, cornering the market however they have definitely spent a considerable amount of their earnings to achieve this. The south east Asian market has proved to be competitive and investors must monitor Grab to see if they come up with better ways to dominate marketshare.

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$  

@Optionspuppy  @TigerTradingNotes  @CaptainTiger  @TigerWire