$Alphabet(GOOG)$  

Trump, Tarrifs and (Global) Tension.

The three big Ts, that are the most notorious for pushing down the stock market as of late.

Eventhough most companies are reporting earnings within expectations, Trump's economic plan and policy changes has shaken up investors to the point where they are no longer confident in the market. The Fear and Greed Index has been brought down to extreme fear at 22. The last time we were close to these levels was August 5th 2024, and QQQ gapped down to 421. 

However flash forward to now, we can see the market reacted irrationally because at the same fear level, QQQ is at 500, with a previous high of 528. 

So now that we know the market can react irrationally, is this dip a justified warning, or a blunder we can capitalise off? When we take a look at most of the Mag 7, with their high PE (even forward PE being ridiculously high) even after a dip, I do not think buying at these prices with a sizeable investment for the long term, is a good idea.

We can take a look at undervalued stocks with low PEs and a possibility of turnaround, however I'm not comfortable blindly recommending these small cap stocks to readers because their gains can take years, and their stock price can remain depreciated for years, a string of bad years can even shut them down permanently or leave them in a state where they might not recover. 

The one thing I have decent confidence to recommend, right at this moment. Is Google. Their decline has been going on for quite some time and even months ago there were posts shouting 

" BUY THE DIP ITS SO CHEAP, GOOGLE UNDEFEATED", 

When I saw these posts at the time I didn't think much of it and felt like it may have been bag holders trying to rally the stock. There was a lot of uncertainty at the time, with Judges in talks of breaking up Google, anti-monopoly lawsuits . And it did look like the end of days for Google; a company that has showed growth and even with the threat of competition still managed to maintain growth and dominance, would be killed off with the stroke of a pen.

But things have changed now. Not so much financially for Google, but politically.

Trump has come onto the scene. He's shaking things up with his policy changes and mandates. But  3 big things are clear.

1. He wants to cut government spending and remove unnecessary funding to companies 

2. He wants to bring production and investment back to America and will be imposing tarrifs on nations that compete with US directly.

3. He's willing to make deals as long as they benefit the US more.

$Apple(AAPL)$  CEO Tim Cook, immediately came to Trump soon after his win, talked it over and agreed to do a 500 billion investment in US over the next 4 years in exchange for receiving leniency in the tarrif trade wars.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2025/02/24/apple-promises-500-billion-us-investment-and-20000-jobs/

Trump sends back Illegal immigrants to Colombia, and Colombia president blocks their entry. Trump hits them with emergency Tarrifs that will increase by the week. Colombian President announces that he will hit US with import tarrifs.  In less than 24 hours, Colombia folds and personally flies the immigrants back to their country and drops all threats of tarrifs against the US.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20p36e62gyo.amp

Trump announces plans to cut chipmaker funding, to prioritise DOMESTIC chipmaker production and investment, levies threats and tareifs against China and Taiwan. A week later $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  CEO announces another 100 billion dollar investment in chipmaking factories in the US. This would not only reduce the reliance in chips from Taiwan, but allows us to still benefit from TSMC chip management but with factories safely located in the US. Now even if China invades (which has become a very unlikely possibility under a Trump Administration), the global chip supply will not fall into total crisis.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-tsmc-chip-manufacturing-tariffs-42980704ffca62e823182422ee4b7b83

Zelensky and Trump fought over peace negotiations with Russia and Zelensky stormed odd, brushing off Trump's threat to cut aid. Barely 48 hours later and Zelensky folds and changes his stance of fighting Russia, and wants to make a deal with America and apologises to Trump.

https://highlandcountypress.com/news/zelenskyy-folds-offers-sign-mineral-deal-us-any-time#gsc.tab=0

We are seeing that Trump's method of diplomacy is calling people's bluff, shaking up the established order and effecting insanely positive changes for America's longterm growth. 

Now lets take a look at news that came out today. Google execs are now going to Trump and making plea deals for Trump to repeal the lawsuit filed against Google, citing that breaking up Google would give China dominance over the market share.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/google-report-begs-trump-doj-to-not-break-it-up?srsltid=AfmBOor9rodySuRftZaJPt1vf3zd9VHEPq96qZctYQ4wULeEYTQxHrby

Now Google might be a little presumptuous but they are not wrong for thinking that a new administration might weigh in their favour, especially one as anti-china as Trump. I think Trump might consider doing this for Google in exchange for massive commitments towards creating local investments

Considering how Google is already quite a US domestic operation I also think they will be the least affected by the global tarrifs as compared to the other Mag 7 and tech stocks.

So that's my analysis and assumptions, I'm betting on Google, but DYODD.

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