TL;DR: Alphabet is probably the safest high-growth play in the market right now. Megacaps are definitely not value investment but if you want the stability of megacap but the cheapest one on the market, then Google is your best bet. DCF calculations pit it at a a range of 114-221

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ another bloody red day, Google fell a bit lower to 163. And is now in morningstars range of a fair vakue pick. However I think Google could very well go lower amidst all this fear and the DOJ break up.

But in the long term its great at generating FCF, doing share buybacks and is the most intuitive software out there, while LLMs like ChatGPT may compete in the search engine game, not many people know how to use them reliably and many still rely on the ease of Google.

I'm just adding via dca because I have no clue how to time the market, just better to own some shares since I plan for holding more than 10 years anyway. 

Alphabet has consistently beating earnings estimates quarter after quarter - a pretty clear sign that management knows what they're doing. I mean, a PE of 21 for a company this massive and profitable?

GOOGL's EV sits at $2,284B with earnings power value at $1,020.5B and market-implied growth value at $1,263.6B. 

When you dig into the Reverse DCF, you see an 11.8% implied FCF growth rate for the next decade (data source: 

[https://valuesense.io/ticker/goog/intrinsic-value]

With $72.8B in LTM free cash flow, a 2.5% long-term growth rate, and 9.2% discount rate, the math checks out perfectly to the current share price.

Waymo is an absolute beast right now - million paid rides monthly and growing. The revenue potential here is massive. Let's not forget Google Cloud steadily expanding and their R&D budget (over $50B).

Yeah, antitrust is the elephant in the room, but hear me out - even a breakup could be bullish. Look at AT&T's breakup history - those Baby Bells made early investors absolute fortunes.

Trading at 52-week average, hitting $400 by 2027 seems totally reasonable based on their trajectory. The new administration might actually create a better regulatory environment, and even in a worst-case scenario, the sum of parts could easily be worth more than the current whole.

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