How to Play the Market Sell-Off

Shumer
04-09

Look, I know everyone’s freaking out about the ~20% drop in U.S. stocks. Your feed is probably full of people either panicking or shouting “Buy the dip!” But here’s something interesting I’ve been doing instead and it might be right up your alley.

Instead of trying to guess if we’ve hit the bottom (spoiler: nobody knows), I’m actually getting paid to wait for better prices. Here’s what I mean…


Right now, market fear is through the roof. In fact, volatility is sitting at some of the highest levels we’ve seen in years (95th percentile). This means something fascinating: you can get paid really well for agreeing to buy stocks at lower prices through put options.


Let me give you a real example I’m looking at: say you’re interested in the ‌$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  . You can sell a 45-day put option  about 10% below where we are now. If the market doesn’t tank further? You pocket around 7% profit in just 45 days. If it does drop? You end up buying at that lower price you wanted anyway, plus you keep that premium. That works out to about 70% annualized returns for basically saying "Sure, I’ll buy if it gets cheaper".

It’s like telling the market: "Hey, I’m happy to buy, but only if you give me an even better deal – and I want you to pay me while I wait." Pretty neat, right?


Here’s why this works so well: Markets are emotional creatures. When fear spikes, people make irrational decisions, creating these beautiful pricing distortions. If you’re thinking long-term (like 10+ years out), these are exactly the moments you want to be methodical and strategic.


This isn’t some complex Wall Street wizardry. It’s just basic derivatives math mixed with a bit of behavioral psychology and the courage to think differently when everyone else is losing their heads.

You know what’s funny? If you work in tech, you probably already think this way. It’s all about probabilities, asymmetric outcomes, and systematic thinking. Sound familiar?

I’ve been diving deep into these strategies lately, and they’re honestly fascinating. If you’re curious about learning more, let me know - I’m thinking about sharing a few more insights like this in a mini-series.


What do you think? Would you rather wait for the perfect moment to buy, or get paid while waiting for better prices? Drop your thoughts below

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • PaulSam
    04-09
    PaulSam
    Added a bit already… looks like I’m shifting from short-term to value investing[Facepalm]
    • Shumer
      Short-term hunters were crushed recently
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