$S&P 500(.SPX)$  The next FOMC meeting is just over five days away, and according to CME Group data, there’s a 95% probability that rates will remain unchanged. The key question now is: will Trump’s pressure or Powell’s caution ultimately shape the Fed's course? If there’s no cut this time, the next opportunity won’t come until June 18—unless deteriorating conditions force an emergency move.

Despite eight consecutive days of gains in the market, the rally feels increasingly disconnected from fundamentals. I can’t quite explain the optimism, especially with more negative headlines likely in the coming month than positive ones. Most of the good news already seems priced in, leaving limited upside unless something unexpected breaks in the bulls’ favor. Will the momentum hold—or are we approaching a reversal?