$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ is scheduled to release its quarterly report for fiscal Q1 2025 on Tuesday, 20 May 2025, before the U.S. markets open. Following the announcement, Bilibili's management will host an earnings conference call at 8:00 AM U.S. Eastern Time (8:00 PM Beijing/Hong Kong Time) on the same day.
Earnings Per Share (EPS) : The consensus EPS forecast for the fiscal quarter ending March 2025 is $0.07. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $-1.06.
Revenue : The consensus revenue forecast for Q1 2025, according to analyst ratings, is RMB 6.909 billion.
Bilibili (BILI) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Share Price Dropped By 10.72%
Bilibili had a positive earnings call on 25 March 2025 which saw its share price declined by 10.72%.
Bilibili's earnings call highlighted significant achievements in revenue growth, profitability, and community engagement, with strong performance in mobile games and advertising. The partnership with CCTV and successful fan charging program further underscored growth. However, challenges from the macro environment were noted. Overall, the positives significantly outweighed the negatives.
Bilibili (BILI) Guidance
During the Bilibili Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results and Business Update Conference Call on February 20, 2025, the company provided detailed guidance on its financial and operational performance. Bilibili reported a total revenue of RMB 7.7 billion in Q4 and RMB 26.8 billion for the full year, marking year-over-year increases of 22% and 19%, respectively. The advertising sector showed robust growth, with revenues increasing by 24% in Q4 and 28% for the year. Mobile games revenue surged by 79% in Q4 and 40% for the year. The company achieved its first GAAP net profit of RMB 89 million in Q4, while the adjusted net profit reached RMB 452 million. The gross profit margin for Q4 was 36.1%, contributing to a 68% year-over-year growth in gross profit.
Daily active users (DAUs) and monthly active users (MAUs) reached 103 million and 340 million, respectively. Users spent an average of 99 minutes daily on the platform. Bilibili's user base comprises nearly 70% of China's Gen Z population, with an average age of 25. The company emphasized its strategic focus on high-quality content, community engagement, and commercialization, while also exploring opportunities in AI to enhance its offerings.
Key Areas To Focus For Bilibili (BILI) Fiscal Q1 2025 Earnings
Revenue Growth: Bilibili has shown strong revenue growth in previous quarters, particularly in advertising and mobile games. It will be important to see if this momentum has continued into Q1 2025. In fiscal year 2024, total net revenues increased by 19% year-over-year, with advertising revenues up by 28% and mobile games revenues up by 40%.
Bilibili achieved total revenues of RMB 7.7 billion in Q4 and RMB 26.8 billion for the full year, reflecting year-over-year increases of 22% and 19%, respectively.
Profitability: A significant focus for investors will be on Bilibili's progress towards profitability. In Q4 2024, the company reported a net profit, a significant improvement from a net loss in the same period of the previous year. The market will be keen to see if this positive trend continues.
Bilibili reported its first GAAP net profit of RMB 89 million in Q4, with an adjusted net profit reaching RMB 452 million.
User Growth and Engagement: Bilibili's platform is known for its strong user engagement, especially among younger generations in China. Key metrics to watch include the average daily active users (DAUs) and monthly active users (MAUs). In Q4 2024, average DAUs reached 103.0 million.
DAUs and MAUs reached 103 million and 340 million, respectively, with users spending an average of 99 minutes daily on the platform.
Advertising Performance: Advertising has become a major growth driver for Bilibili. Investors will be looking at the growth rate of advertising revenue and the effectiveness of Bilibili's advertising products and efficiency.
Advertising revenue increased by 24% year-over-year in Q4 and 28% for the year, with strong growth in performance-based ad revenues by over 40% year-over-year.
Mobile Games: The performance of Bilibili's mobile game business, including both existing and new titles, will be closely watched. The strong growth in this segment in 2024 indicates its importance to the overall financial health of the company.
Mobile games revenues surged by 79% year-over-year in Q4 and 40% for the year, driven by expansion into the strategy game genre.
Value-Added Services (VAS): This segment, which includes live broadcasting and other services, also contributes to Bilibili's revenue. Its growth and contribution margin will be of interest.
The fan charging program saw creators' total earnings increase by nearly 500% in 2024. Successful partnership with CCTV for the Spring Festival Gala, attracting over 230 million views and a 20% increase in DAUs compared to the previous year.
Cost Management: Bilibili has been focusing on improving its monetization efficiency and managing costs. Trends in cost of revenues and operating expenses will be important indicators of the company's operational management.
Despite strong performance, challenges from the macro environment were acknowledged, impacting brand and native ad revenues.
Bilibili (BILI) Price Target
Based on 27 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Bilibili in the last 3 months. The average price target is $25.12 with a high forecast of $34.40 and a low forecast of $18.00. The average price target represents a 41.59% change from the last price of $17.74.
Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
As of May 15, 2025, Bilibili's American Depositary Shares (BILI) closed at $17.74, down 2.63% from the opening price. Wall Street analysts have a 1-year average price target of $25.62 for BILI, with a low forecast of $18.18 and a high forecast of $36.12, suggesting a potential upside.
From the technical, BILI does not display a good momentum for the share price to have a daily uptrend coming anytime, and looks like the bulls and bears are fighting for control, and BILI need to show some strength to clear 50-day, then we could see the bulls attempting to build a daily uptrend.
The good news is there is no potential of selling off or profit taking from the short interest, volume is decreasing, and the short price is also manageable, so this might help BILI bulls to gain the upper hands in the control.
Summary
The market will be keenly anticipating Bilibili's fiscal Q1 2025 earnings report on 20th May to assess the company's continued growth trajectory, its progress towards profitability, and the performance across its key business segments. The management's commentary during the earnings call will also provide valuable insights into the company's future strategies and outlook.
I think we could look at this stock today (16 May) as there might be some potential for an earnings surprise when it release the result on 20 May 2025.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think BILI would provide an earnings surprise with the multiple potential positive factors available.
@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
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