Stablecoin $CRCL IPO Analysis: Will Doubling of the IPO Price?

On June 5th, $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ will IPO on the NYSE in the highest profile IPO seen since $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ back in 2021.

Bloomberg reporting that the Circle IPO has priced at $31 per share, above the range. $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ $USDATA Corp.(USDC)$

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Financial reports in 3 years:

• $1.7B revenues (+16% y/y)

• $285M EBIDTA (-29% y/y)

• $155M Net Income (-42%)

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See from the $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ financial model below. $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 's IPO valuation was raised to $31, and the Forward PE was 24 times. For a more extreme example, you can refer to the table just now, where the Forward PE in 2026 was about 30 times, which means it can be raised to more than $65.

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ : First stablecoin on NYSE analysis

1. Circle is a leveraged "uninsured money market fund": Profits are dependent on US T-bill spreads, with $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ and $BlackRock(BLK)$ interested in investing 10%, said to be over 25x oversubscribed.

2. Two major cost constraints: $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 's 50% revenue split + bloated operating expenses. Unless the Coinbase agreement is renegotiated post-2026 and costs are cut, Circle's margin is thin.

3. Interest rate cut risk is real and imminent: If the Fed cuts rates by 150bps through 2026, Circle likely turns unprofitable. Conversely, higher rates = higher profits.

4. GENIUS Act is a net short-term positive: Should drive issuance growth and valuation premium, though the magnitude is uncertain.

5. The symbolic value of listing is huge: As the first major stablecoin to list on NYSE, generating retail excitement globally (even seeing discussions on non-crypto platforms like RED), as people lack direct stablecoin exposure.

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