Walmart chart lowkey looks like it tripped down the stairs š RSI cooked, MACD bleeding, and theyāre out here launching stablecoins?? Meanwhile $TGT just chillin above its 50DMA like nothing happened. Appreciate the full breakdown BC, you always deliver š„š„
@Barcodeļ¼$Wal-Mart(WMT)$ $Target(TGT)$ šš»š BĢ³EĢ³AĢ³RĢ³IĢ³SĢ³HĢ³ š„ššØ Walmartās Nine-Day Spiral: Unpacking the Technical, Fundamental, and Strategic Forces Shaping Retailās Giants šØšš„ Nine consecutive red candles have turned Walmart ($WMT) from a retail titan into a technical cautionary tale. As of 17Jun25, š³šæNZ time, the stock sits at $94.29, down -5.2% from its early June peak above $100, a slide that stands in stark contrast to the S&P 500ās +1.3% gain over the same period. This isnāt just a blip; itās the longest losing streak since August 2011, and itās raising questions about whether Walmart, and by extension, Target ($TGT), are caught in a structural unraveling of the big-box retail model. Iām diving into the technicals, the macro-economic pressures, and the latest developments to figure out whatās driving this, what might happen next, and where the opportunities lie. š§ Technical Analysis: A Chart Under Siege Walmartās price action is relentless, nine straight days of lower highs and lower lows, with no reversal in sight. The stock has sliced through the 50-day moving average (DMA) at $95.20, a short-term trend line that often signals shifts in momentum. Now, itās barreling toward the 200-DMA at $90, a longer-term support thatās held firm in past pullbacks. Hereās what the data shows me: ā¢ Price Levels: Closed at $94.29, testing the 50-DMA breakdown. A drop below $90 could open the door to $86 to $88, a zone last seen in late 2024 ā¢ RSI: Dipping toward 30, nearing oversold territory, but no bullish divergence yet, selling pressure hasnāt exhausted itself ā¢ MACD: A full bearish crossover on the daily chart, with the signal line diverging further. No hint of a bottom ā¢ Volume: Elevated but not capitulatory, suggesting steady distribution rather than panic dumping ā¢ Options Flow: Put/call ratios are spiking, with heavy activity in $95 and $90 puts expiring 20Jun25. Hedge funds are actively hedging ā¢ Short Interest: 0.8% of float (Yahoo Finance), not a short squeeze yet, but could escalate if $90 fails Target ($TGT), by contrast, is showing resilience. After bottoming in March, itās consolidating above its 50-DMA ($145.50), with MACD flattening and a potential base forming. Walmartās free-fall feels more isolated, but the sectorās fate may hinge on both. š Macro-Economic Context: A Perfect Storm for Retail Inflation, still sticky at 3.2% (May 2025 CPI), continues to erode purchasing power, especially for lower-income consumers. Foot traffic at big-box stores lags behind e-commerce, but Walmartās online margins are razor-thin (2 to 3 percent). The Federal Reserveās hawkish stance adds pressure. Fed funds futures (via CME FedWatch) indicate a 95% chance of rates holding at 5.25 to 5.5% through July 2025, keeping credit tight. Walmartās debt-to-equity ratio of 0.8 isnāt catastrophic, but it limits flexibility in this high-rate environment. Supply chain snarls from Red Sea disruptions have pushed freight costs up 15% year over year (Bloomberg), a direct hit to Walmartās China-heavy import model. And with Trump-era tariffs reinstated in 2025, Walmartās COGS could rise another 10 to 15%. Combine that with Amazonās marginless war for e-commerce dominance, and itās a perfect retail storm. š° Recent Events: Stablecoins, Political Noise, and Earnings Reality On 13Jun25, The Wall Street Journal reported that Walmart and Amazon are exploring stablecoin issuance, digital USD equivalents designed to reduce transaction costs via blockchain rails. For a company processing over $600 billion in annual sales, this could be a game-changer. But it also introduces execution risk. Regulatory friction, consumer adoption hurdles, and mission drift fears have investors questioning if Walmart is losing focus amid a sectoral shakeout. Add to that the political backlash: A Walmart heiressās anti-Trump remarks on 10Jun25 (Forbes) sparked conservative boycott calls. No material damage is visible yet, but retail thrives on brand stability, not partisan chaos. Earnings were mixed. Q1 2025 revenue grew 6% to $152 billion, led by a 22% e-commerce surge. But EPS of $1.65 missed by $0.05, and operating margins contracted to 4.2% from 4.5%. Targetās Q1 was worse, comps down 3.8% and 2025 guidance cut (22May call). The margin squeeze is real, and Walmartās edge may be narrowing. š¼ Analyst and Hedge Fund Sentiment ā¢ Ari Wald (Oppenheimer, 14Jun25): Calls this āa pullback within consolidationā after a 71.9% 2024 gain (vs S&Pās 23.3%). Bullish if $90 holds ā¢ Rajat Gupta (Bernstein, 12Jun25): Bearish on $TGT, lowered PT to $130 from $148 ā¢ Citadel: Increased $WMT position by 5% in Q2 (13F filing) ā¢ Renaissance Technologies: Trimmed 3% of $WMT ā¢ MarketWatch consensus targets: $WMT $105 (range $88 to $115), $TGT $155 (range $130 to $170) šÆ Watchlist: What Iām Tracking ā¢ Walmart: ā¢ Price action around $90 200-DMA ā¢ RSI and MACD divergence on daily and 4H ā¢ Options flow after 20Jun25 expiry ā¢ Retail ETF $XRT into 21Jun25 Russell rebalance ā¢ Target: ā¢ $145.50 50-DMA holding pattern ā¢ MACD crossover trigger ā¢ Q2 earnings in August ā¢ Macro: ā¢ Powellās 18Jun25 press conference ā¢ 19Jun25 retail sales print š§ Contrarian Insight: Oversold or Overvalued? At 37x forward P/E, $WMT is priced like a growth stock in a defensive wrapper, far above its historical 25x and $TGTās 18x. After last yearās euphoric 71.9% rally, this could be a healthy valuation unwind. Still, thereās insider conviction: CFO John Rainey purchased 10,000 shares at $95.50 on 14Jun25. Thatās not nothing. The technical plunge may be sentiment-driven, not fundamental. If $90 holds, we could see a rebound back to $96 to $100 swiftly. š” Conclusion: Precision Beats Panic Walmartās nine-day slide is a critical inflection. Itās not yet a crash, but itās not a buy-the-dip moment either. If $90 fails, a flood of technical selling could take it to $86. If it holds, we may see bulls regain control. Either way, this isnāt just about Walmart, itās the litmus test for the entire retail complex. š¢ Donāt miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets šš Iām obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Letās outsmart the market and stack those gains together! š Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC ššššš @Tiger_comments @TigerWire @TigerPicks @TigerStars @TigerClub @Daily_Discussion Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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