that $141.41 gamma trigger you flagged is š„ I was wondering why IV wasnāt higher with all this noise. the wedge setup plus OPEX timing is lining up too perfect. watching this close. BC always delivers š„
@Barcodeļ¼$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ šØšš§ Palantir: Navigating the Crossroads of Valuation, Volatility, and Political Theater š§ ššØ 18June25, š³šæNZST Palantir Technologies ($PLTR) has become a lightning rod, its stock price a volatile mirror reflecting technical signals, macro-economic currents, and political drama. As I write this, itās fresh off its 17th record close of 2025, having spiked to an intraday high of $144.86 before retreating to a pivotal $138.65 backtest zone. This isnāt a mundane chart blip, itās a high-stakes moment where valuation debates, market mechanics, and headline risks collide. So, whatās really happening, and how do I position myself? Letās dive in. š Technical Analysis: A Wedge Under Pressure The chart tells a story of tension. Palantir is retesting the upper trendline of its April breakout wedge, a level where $139.22, once resistance, now serves as a support battleground. Iāve seen this pattern before: itās acted as a springboard in past OPEX cycles, coiling energy for sharp moves. With Fridayās expiry looming, the stakes are high. Price Action: After hitting $144.86, the stock eased to $138.65, a critical backtest. Itās holding, for now. Key Levels: Resistance: $141.41 (last record close), $144.86 (all-time high) Support: $138.65 (current test), $135.50 (trend invalidation), $125.14 (gap-fill) Indicators: The MACD is positive, a sign that bullish momentum hasnāt faded W%R is flirting with overbought territory, whispering caution about a near-term pullback Volume is tightening but not cratering, consolidation not capitulation Options Flow: The tape shows 209k contracts traded, modest but telling. The put/call ratio has climbed to 0.88 (above its 0.64 average), signaling trader unease. Implied volatility (IV30) sits at 54.27, below its 52-week median, suggesting controlled swings, not pandemonium. Yet, the skew is steepening, with downside hedges picking up. Bulls are still in control, but theyāre bracing for turbulence. Short Interest: Roughly 4.5% of the float is shorted, manageable, but a close above $141.41 could spark a squeeze, especially with gamma exposure lurking. My Playbook: Bull Case: A daily close above $141.41, backed by volume, reclaims the wedge and eyes $144.86, then $154.64 (a weekly Fibonacci extension) Neutral Zone: Holding $138.00ā$135.50 offers a reload opportunity Bear Risk: A break below $135.50 with heavy volume targets $125.14, amplified by geopolitical noise š¼ Valuation: Expensive, But Justified? Letās cut through the noise, Palantirās metrics raise eyebrows: Forward P/E: 203x (S&P 500: 22.3x) P/S Ratio: 103.5 P/E (TTM): 592.76 Analyst Consensus: $107, 23% below todayās price, with only 25% rating it a Buy On paper, it screams overvalued. But I donāt buy the bubble narrative wholesale. The Q3 earnings paint a different picture: 35% year-over-year revenue growth, with commercial revenue surging 54% and government contracts reaching $487M (up from $118M in Q1 2020). The Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) hit $1.9 billion in Q1 2025, nearly half its mid-term revenue forecast. This is sticky, institutional-grade revenue, not speculative froth. Palantirās premium reflects its role as a compounder in a high-growth niche, not a fleeting hype train. š” Political Firestorm: Smear or Substance? The latest twist came this week: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Elizabeth Warren fired off a letter demanding Palantir disclose its government contracts, data already public via procurement records. Citing a New York Times piece, they likened Palantir to IBMās Nazi-era dealings and Ciscoās role in Chinaās firewall. Hyperbole aside, this feels like political theater, not policy. Hereās the reality: Palantirās tech has tracked COVID outbreaks for the CDC, distributed vaccines, aided the IRS, supported the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children, and modernized battlefield intel in Ukraine. Comparing it to war crimes is a stretch, itās a headline grab. Still, the noise matters. Itās fueling volatility, with traders hedging against sudden swings. Iām watching how this plays out into OPEX, sentiment could shift fast. šļø Macro-Economic Context: Tailwinds in Play The bigger picture favors Palantir: Monetary Policy: The Fedās June FOMC meeting reaffirmed a dovish stance, low rates lift growth stocks like this AI Arms Race: Nvidiaās recent earnings lit a fire under AI names, and Palantirās enterprise-grade platform is front and center Defense Spending: U.S. budgets are climbing into 2026, a boon for Palantirās $487M government haul Global Trends: As nations pour billions into AI and cybersecurity, Palantirās contracts spanning NATO allies and critical infrastructure position it as a linchpin This isnāt just a tech play, itās a structural bet on where the worldās heading. The macro runway is long, and Palantirās locked in. š Hedge Funds and Analysts: Mixed Signals Hedge Funds: Tiger Global and Coatue Management boosted their stakes last quarter, a vote of confidence amid the noise Analysts: The consensus target lags at $107, but outliers shine, Loop Capital upped its call to $155, touting Palantirās AI dominance. The split reflects the stockās duality: growth potential versus valuation risk. I lean toward the bulls, fundamentals outweigh the skeptics š Forward-Looking Watchlist: Whatās Next? Hereās what Iām tracking this week: OPEX Test: Does $138.65 hold into 21June25? Momentum Trigger: A $141.41 reclaim could ignite gamma and short covering Political Wildcard: Will escalating attacks dampen call volume or spike volatility skew? Catalysts: Geopolitical flare-ups or earnings chatter could jolt the stock, up or down š§ Conclusion: A Pressure Point, Not a Peak Palantir sits at a crossroads, technical tension, macro promise, and political static all in play. Yes, itās pricey, but its growth engine, institutional backing, and AI leadership justify the premium. Iām tactically bullish above $135.50, structurally long-term optimistic, and poised to add if $141.41 breaks with conviction. Volatilityās a given, headline risk isnāt fading, but the setup screams opportunity. This isnāt a top, itās a launchpad for those who see the bigger picture. š¢ Donāt miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets šš Iām obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Letās outsmart the market and stack those gains together! š Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC ššššš @Tiger_comments @TigerPicks @TigerClub @TigerStars @TigerWire @Daily_Discussion Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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