Stablecoin Surge: Can Circle Outshine Coinbase and Rattle Visa/Mastercard?

As of June 19, 2025, the financial world is abuzz with the passage of the GENIUS Act by the US Senate, approved with a commanding 68-30 vote. This legislation is poised to turbocharge the stablecoin sector, and two companies— $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ and $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ —are at the forefront of this revolution. Circle’s stock is nearing $200, sparking speculation that it could soon eclipse Coinbase’s market value, while Coinbase itself roared with a 16% surge yesterday. But what does this mean for investors? Will stablecoins disrupt traditional payment giants like Visa and Mastercard? Let’s dive into the details.

The GENIUS Act: A Catalyst for Stablecoin Growth

The Global Expansion of Non-Cash Innovation and Universal Stability (GENIUS) Act is a game-changer. It introduces:

Regulatory Clarity: A defined framework for stablecoin issuers, reducing legal risks.
Tax Incentives: Breaks for companies investing in stablecoin tech.
Global Standards: Encouraging international cooperation for seamless cross-border transactions.

This act is expected to fuel a stablecoin bull market, with Circle and Coinbase as key beneficiaries.

Circle vs. Coinbase: The Stablecoin Showdown

Circle, issuer of the USDC stablecoin, has seen its stock climb to $199.50, up 12% in the past week, nearing a market value of $44 billion. Coinbase, a leading crypto exchange and Circle’s partner via the Centre Consortium, hit $295.29 after a 16% jump, with a market cap of $75 billion.

Circle’s Edge: Directly tied to USDC, Circle benefits most from stablecoin adoption. A speculative target price of $250 seems plausible if USDC usage soars.
Coinbase’s Strength: Its broader exchange business diversifies revenue, but it still rides the stablecoin wave through its partnership with Circle.

Stablecoin Market: The Next Frontier

Stablecoins, pegged to fiat like the USD, are gaining traction for payments, DeFi, and remittances due to their stability and efficiency. The GENIUS Act could propel their market size from $500 billion in 2025 to $2.5 trillion by 2030 (hypothetical projection). Here’s a growth chart:

Threat to Traditional Payments

Stablecoins challenge Visa and Mastercard with lower fees, faster settlements, and global reach. However, these giants are adapting, integrating blockchain tech and partnering with stablecoin issuers. A comparison:

While disruption is possible, Visa and Mastercard’s established networks and innovation make them tough to topple.

Investment Picks and Risks

Circle: Ideal for stablecoin enthusiasts, but its reliance on USDC ties it to regulatory and interest rate risks.
Coinbase: A safer bet with diversified revenue, though less directly tied to stablecoins.
Visa/Mastercard: Betting against them is risky given their resilience, but stablecoins could erode their dominance long-term.

Conclusion

The GENIUS Act has ignited a stablecoin frenzy, with Circle and Coinbase poised for gains. Circle might surpass Coinbase’s market value if USDC adoption accelerates, but both offer unique opportunities. Stablecoins could disrupt traditional payments, yet Visa and Mastercard remain formidable. Investors should weigh growth potential against regulatory and market risks.

As always, Do Your Own Due Diligence and ensure risk management > prediction. Trade smart, stay adaptable, and don’t let emotions chase candles.

Circle Dumping Risk? Cash Out at $150 or Time to Bottom?

Circle beats revenue but fell as it 5% as it files to sell 10M shares of Class A common stock. Circle reported a net loss of $482 million in the second quarter, compared with a $33 million profit a year ago. Revenue increased by 53% to $658 million, surpassing Wall Street estimates of $646 million.

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