Q2 2025 ASML Highlights

Laurentiu Chisca
07-16

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$

Total Net Sales: €7.7 billion (flat QoQ, within guidance)

Gross Margin: 53.7% (above guidance, helped by upgrade business and one-offs)

Net Income: €2.3 billion

Earnings Per Share (EPS): €5.90

Net Bookings: €5.5 billion

Of which EUV: €2.3 billion

Lithography Systems Sold: 67 new, 9 used

🔹 Cash Flow & Capital Return

Free Cash Flow: €319 million

Share Buyback (Q2): ~€1.4 billion (≈2.3 million shares)

Interim Dividend: €1.60/share payable August 6, 2025

Cash & Short-Term Investments (End Q2): €7.25 billion

🔹 Business Developments

Shipped first TWINSCAN EXE:5200B system, advancing High-NA EUV adoption

Stronger lithography intensity in DRAM, supporting AI infrastructure growth

Continued emphasis on 3D front-end integration and scaling EUV for the long term

🔹 Outlook

Q3 2025 Guidance:

Net Sales: €7.4–€7.9 billion

Gross Margin: 50%–52%

R&D Spend: ~€1.2 billion

SG&A: ~€310 million

FY 2025 Guidance:

Revenue Growth (YoY): ~15%

Gross Margin: ~52%

Effective Tax Rate: ~17%

🔹 Strategic Insights

Semiconductor industry expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, driven by AI

ASML targets €44–€60 billion revenue by 2030 depending on litho intensity scenarios

Plans to maintain shareholder returns via rising dividends and share repurchases

ASML maintains a confident yet cautious outlook for the remainder of 2025:

Q3 2025 Guidance:

Revenue: Between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion

Gross Margin: 50%–52%

R&D Costs: ~€1.2 billion

SG&A Costs: ~€310 million

Installed Base Management Sales: Around €2.0 billion

Full-Year 2025 Outlook:

Total Net Sales Growth: ~15% vs. 2024

Gross Margin: ~52%

Effective Tax Rate: ~17%

Management reiterated strong demand drivers, especially from AI-related applications, and noted continued momentum in EUV and High-NA adoption. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties limit the company’s visibility beyond 2025, with cautious language around confirming growth in 2026.

“Looking at 2026, we see that our AI customers' fundamentals remain strong. At the same time, we continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments.”

— Christophe Fouquet, CEO

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ASML Stock Plunge Amid 2025 Guidance Update, 2026 Growth Uncertainty, and Broader Market Impact
ASML Holding NV, a leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer, experienced a significant stock decline of 5.38% due to narrowed 2025 guidance and concerns about uncertain growth in 2026. CEO Christophe Fouquet withdrew growth expectations for 2026 citing trade disputes and global tensions, leading to an 8.5% stock drop on Wednesday, the largest single-day decline since April. Despite maintaining a 15% revenue growth expectation for the year, market expectations may need to be adjusted downwards by 7% if 2026 sales remain flat compared to 2025. The company's Q3 sales guidance was below forecasts, impacting its stock performance and that of its peers in the tech sector. ASML reported exceeding market expectations with new orders of 5.5 billion euros in the second quarter. European stock markets also experienced a downturn due to disappointing earnings reports from ASML and Renault, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index slipping by 0.2%. The uncertainty in 2026 growth is attributed to increasing tariffs and global trade tensions, particularly those influenced by President Trump's policies.
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