The race to $200 is heating up between AMD and Nvidia, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. AMD’s momentum has been undeniable—up another 2% on Friday to close at $166, riding a wave of strong earnings, new product launches, and growing belief in its ability to challenge Nvidia in AI and data centre chips. If sentiment stays this bullish and traders keep chasing “the next Nvidia,” AMD could easily keep rallying, especially if the company delivers another round of upbeat guidance or lands a major new partnership in the coming weeks.

On the other hand, Nvidia’s fundamental strength remains the gold standard in AI hardware. Alphabet’s $10 billion capex is a direct signal that hyperscalers and big tech are not slowing down their AI investments—and nearly every dollar of new capex in AI infrastructure flows to Nvidia’s GPUs first. With big tech earnings ahead, if any of the giants announce another round of capex increases or bullish AI demand, Nvidia could rebound hard and resume its march higher.

So who gets to $200 first?

If you’re playing pure momentum and trader psychology, AMD probably has the edge in the very short term—it’s coming off a lower base, has more to prove, and could pop on even minor news. But if you want to bet on fundamentals and institutional buying, Nvidia remains the safer long-term play, and any consolidation above $170 sets up a new run if the next earnings or capex headlines are positive.

Bottom line: AMD might “sprint” to $200 on momentum and hype, but Nvidia’s “marathon” of capex-driven earnings power means it’s just a matter of time. In a market this hot for AI, both could easily reach $200 this year—it’s just a question of who gets there first.