$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Palantir’s Q2 earnings are shaping up as one of the most closely watched events of the season—and for good reason. After a massive 110% run in 2025, expectations are sky-high, and even Citi, one of the biggest Wall Street players, is bullish going into the print. They’re calling for a 2–3 point revenue beat and see strength both in Palantir’s traditional government business and its fast-growing commercial/AI division.

The AI story is driving most of the hype. Palantir has pivoted hard into generative AI and large language models, landing new clients across healthcare, defense, and the private sector. This “AI everywhere” narrative has been central to the stock’s incredible rally this year—and bulls will want to see proof that this momentum is still accelerating, not just holding steady. Government growth has been a big tailwind, but it gets tougher from here as comps get steeper in the back half of the year, which could put more pressure on the commercial side to deliver upside surprises.

The key questions for this report:

• Can Palantir keep up double-digit growth in both core and new AI lines?

• Will margins hold up as they invest more aggressively in commercial expansion?

• Is there enough forward-looking commentary to justify the sky-high valuation, especially after such a strong run?

If Palantir beats and raises guidance—even modestly—the hype cycle could kick into another gear, especially if management can showcase new AI use cases and land a few more high-profile contracts. But if results are merely “good,” or if guidance is cautious, the risk of a classic post-earnings pullback is real. After a 110% rally, the market is impatient for perfection.

Bottom line: This is a “show me” quarter for Palantir. The company has the narrative and the momentum, but now it needs the numbers to back it up. If AI adoption keeps accelerating and commercial wins offset tougher government comps, Palantir could justify its recent gains—and maybe even break higher. But in a market that punishes even slight disappointments, there’s zero margin for error.