Option Witch | Palantir's 2Q May Beat Again, Two Defined-Risk Strategies in Focus

Option Witch
08-04

Palantir will release its second-quarter earnings after the market closes on Monday, Aug. 4. A consensus estimate calls for adjusted earnings per share of $0.14 on revenue of $939.29M. If this EPS is met by Palantir, it would mean 53.83% EPS growth year-over-year. Investors may consider defined-risk spread strategies like bull call/put spreads.

Palantir Remains "Al Secular Winner"

Palantir is heading into its second-quarter earnings with strong momentum. The company’s management has guided Q2 revenue between $934 million and $938 million, representing roughly 38% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. However, based on its recent performance trends and growing demand for its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), there’s reason to believe Palantir might once again exceed its projections.

Piper Sandler has initiated Palantir Technologies at overweight saying that the intelligence community software platform provider "has a one-of-a-kind growth + margin model that if proven durable could grow into a $24B run-rate by CY32E via share gains across two $1+ trillion TAMs." The firm has a $170 price target.

Mizuho increased its price target on Palantir to $135 from $116. as its sustained revenue growth has proven to be stronger than expected and has changed the minds of doubters.

"PLTR's recent execution and momentum is stunning, including material upward revisions across its commercial and government segments that we very much underestimated," said Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz in an investor note. "We also believe PLTR has a legitimate chance to accelerate revenue growth for a 5th consecutive quarter when reporting 2Q results."

However, Palantir is currently trading at eye-popping valuation levels, with a forward earnings multiple of 433.88x and a price-sales ratio of 130.8x.

Options Traders Anticipate a 11% Move

Traders are pricing in a potential move of about 11.27% in either direction following the earnings release. While that’s below Palantir’s average earnings move of 17.47% over the past four quarters, it still indicates potential for significant post-earnings volatility.

Source: OptionChartsSource: OptionCharts

Call open interest expiring this Friday totals 116,108, while puts stand at 103,217 — indicating a moderatelly bullish tilt among options traders.

Source: OptionChartsSource: OptionCharts

Option Strategy

1. Bull Call Spread (155/160)

Structure:

  • Buy 155 Call @ $9.00

  • Sell 160 Call @ $6.85Net Debit: $2.15 per contract.

$PLTR Vertical 250808 155.0C/160.0C$

Source: Tiger Trade AppSource: Tiger Trade App

Rationale:

  • Targets a 3.7% rise to $160 by expiration (Aug 8).

  • High IV (118–126%) makes long calls expensive, but selling the 160 Call offsets cost.

  • Ideal if you expect moderate upside but want to limit downside.

2. Bull Put Spread (155/150)

Structure:

  • Sell 155 Put @ $9.75

  • Buy 150 Put @ $7.24Net Credit: $2.51 per contract.

$PLTR Vertical 250808 150.0P/155.0P$

Source: Tiger Trade AppSource: Tiger Trade App

Rationale:

  • Benefits from sideways/upward movement (no rally required).

  • High short put premium due to elevated IV.

  • Lower risk tolerance? This strategy profits even if PLTR dips 1.2% to $152.49.

$(PLTR)$
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Valerie Archibald
    08-04
    Valerie Archibald
    $10 billion contract with the US, that is a lot of trust from the US… and a lot of zeros $$$.

  • Mortimer Arthur
    08-04
    Mortimer Arthur
    PLTR is my number 1 winner in my portfolio. Not going to lose sleep owning this.

  • Phyllis Strachey
    08-04
    Phyllis Strachey
    PLTR's AI growth is insane—I'm all in on that call spread!
  • GabrielleSusan
    08-04
    GabrielleSusan
    Great insights on Palantir's strategies! [Heart]
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