Option Witch | Super Micro Eyes Fiscal 4Q Beat on Blackwell Bump, Two Bullish Option Plays in Focus

SMCI is set to report for its fiscal Q4 FY2025 after the market closes on August 5th. Based on consensus estimates, revenues are likely to grow by about 13% year-over-year to $6.01 billion, while earnings are likely to come in at about $0.44 per share, down marginally compared to last year.

SMCI's recent margin pressures and Q3 reset have set a low bar for Q4, creating a high probability for a double-beat on revenue and EPS.

Super Micro's Q4 Guidance Target Within Reach, Revisits 2026 View

Nvidia's Blackwell GPU ramp-up and a strengthening neo-cloud Al infrastructure build-out may lead to better sales execution for Super Micro, which could put 4Q sales at least in line with guidance of $6 billion. Nvidia's GB200 rollout should improve near-term deal visibility, while the expected 2H launch of GB300 could further strengthen the pipeline with multiple large AI server deals to meet liquid-cooling demand.

Market watchers anticipate Super Micro to reissue its fiscal 2026 guidance. However, we wouldn't be surprised if it backs away from the prior $40 billion outlook and provides cautious guidance given the continued tariff overhang and its choppy execution in recent quarters, A $35 billion sales forecast would be 19% ahead of consensus and could still be viewed positively.

The AI server market continues to expand rapidly, with hyperscale cloud providers and enterprises investing heavily in infrastructure upgrades. Supermicro's positioning in this market should benefit from increased GPU deployments requiring sophisticated cooling solutions and server configurations.

SMCI's Call Open Interest Climbs, Indicating Bullish Tilt

Traders are pricing in a potential move of about 11.5% in either direction following the earnings release.

Source: OptionCharts

Call open interest expiring this Friday totals 228,579, while puts stand at 84,657 — indicating bullish tilt among options traders.

Source: OptionCharts

Open interest for $68 and $63 calls expiring this week are particularly high, with 35,161 and 33,792 unclosed contracts as of Monday.

$SMCI 20250808 68.0 CALL$

$SMCI 20250808 63.0 CALL$

Source: OptionCharts

Option Strategy

1. Bull Call Spread (Debit Spread)

Structure

• Buy $60 Call @ $2.84+Sell $65 Call @ $1.265

• Net Debit: $1.575 per spread

$SMCI Vertical 250808 60.0C/65.0C$

Key Metrics

• Max Profit: $3.425 (217% return on risk)

• Breakeven: $61.58 (current price +5.8%)

• Max Loss: Limited to $1.575

• Probability of Profit: 31.11%

Source: Tiger Trade App

This leverages SMCI's high IV (146%) while capping downside risk. The $5-wide spread targets a move through resistance at $59.08 toward the 52-week high of $66.44.

2. Bull Put Spread (Credit Spread)

Structure

• Sell $55 Put @ $2.205+Buy $50 Put @ $0.89

• Net Credit: $1.315 per spread

$SMCI Vertical 250808 50.0P/55.0P$

Key Metrics

• Max Profit: $1.315 (100% keepable if SMCI >$55)

• Breakeven: $53.69 (7.8% downside cushion)

• Max Loss: $3.685

• Probability of Profit: 73.05%

Source: Tiger Trade App

Capitalizes on elevated put premiums (IV 152%) while allowing 7.8% downside protection. This generates immediate income with 66.39% short interest ratio suggesting strong support above $55.