$Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$ is scheduled to report its Q2 2025 financial results after the market closes on Thursday, August 7, 2025. Following a strong Q1 report that led to a stock rally, investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its momentum amidst a dynamic digital advertising landscape.
Q2 Revenue Guidance: $682M, with consensus estimates at $686M, marking 17% YoY growth.
EPS Forecast: $0.42 for Q2; full-year EPS projected at $1.00, with 2026 EPS forecast to rise to $1.31. Tipranks is expecting the earnings per share (EPS) to come in at $0.18 per share.
Summary of Trade Desk (TTD) Fiscal Q1 2025 Earnings
The Trade Desk (TTD) delivered a strong performance in Q1 2025, beating analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The company reported revenue of $616 million, a 25% increase year-over-year, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.33, significantly exceeding the forecasted $0.25. The positive results were driven by its strategic focus on Connected TV (CTV) and mobile advertising, as well as the adoption of its new Kokai platform. Following the report, the stock surged, reflecting investor confidence in the company's ability to navigate market uncertainties and gain market share.
Lesson Learned from Guidance
The key lesson from The Trade Desk's Q1 2025 guidance is the importance of a "beat-and-raise" strategy to sustain a premium valuation. After a strong Q1, the company provided a solid outlook for Q2, guiding for at least $682 million in revenue and approximately $259 million in Adjusted EBITDA. This forecast was well-received by the market.
The lesson for investors is that a high-growth stock like TTD is not just judged on its past performance but on its ability to signal continued acceleration. The market demands that TTD not only beats current expectations but also raises its future guidance, demonstrating a confident and optimistic view of its long-term growth trajectory and competitive position in the digital advertising landscape.
Key Metrics to Watch
The Trade Desk is a high-growth company with a premium valuation, meaning investors will be focused on metrics that prove its continued market share gains and future growth potential.
Revenue Growth: This is the most crucial metric for a growth stock like TTD. The company has a history of consistently beating its own guidance and analyst expectations. The consensus analyst estimate for Q2 2025 revenue is approximately $685.9 million, which would represent a year-over-year increase of about 17.3%. A significant beat here would be a major positive catalyst.
Connected TV (CTV) Performance: TTD's growth has been heavily fueled by its dominance in the CTV advertising space. Investors will be listening for specific commentary and metrics on CTV ad spend and how it's performing compared to other advertising channels. The continued migration of ad dollars to CTV is a core part of the TTD investment thesis.
Operating Expenses and Profitability: While revenue growth is key, TTD's path to profitability is also important. The market will be watching to see if the company can maintain or expand its margins while continuing to invest in its technology and sales infrastructure. The consensus for adjusted EPS is $0.22 per share.
Kokai and OpenPath Adoption: The company's proprietary technology, including the Kokai platform and OpenPath, are key differentiators. Any updates on customer adoption and the positive impact on performance will be a significant factor. Evidence that these products are driving better results for advertisers will build confidence in TTD's long-term competitive advantage.
Full-Year 2025 Guidance: The company's guidance for the rest of 2025 will be a major driver of post-earnings price action. Following a strong Q1, the market will be looking for a raise in full-year revenue and profitability forecasts, signaling that management is confident in its ability to navigate the evolving ad market and capture a greater share.
The Trade Desk (TTD) Price Target
Based on 33 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Trade Desk in the last 3 months. The average price target is $92.07 with a high forecast of $135.00 and a low forecast of $47.00. The average price target represents a 4.98% change from the last price of $87.70.
The Trade Desk (TTD): Could It Reclaim $100 Post-Q2 Earnings
With Q2 2025 earnings set to drop on August 7th, The Trade Desk is entering a pivotal moment that could catalyze a return to the $100 level.
Here is a breakdown of the setup:
Earnings & Fundamentals Snapshot
EBITDA Margin: Expected at 38%, up 400bps from Q1.
Cash Position: $1.7B with zero debt, reinforcing financial flexibility.
Catalyst: Kokai AI Platform
Adopted by two-thirds of clients, Kokai is driving: 24% lower cost per conversion 20% lower cost per acquisition
Analysts expect Kokai to deliver high single-digit tailwinds to revenue growth.
Valuation & Analyst Targets
Risks & Headwinds
Macroeconomic uncertainty: Trade tensions, rate volatility, and S&P 500 inclusion could amplify swings.
Valuation sensitivity: High multiples may limit upside unless earnings surprise to the upside.
Short-Term Trading Opportunities Post-Earnings
The Trade Desk's stock has a history of high volatility around earnings reports. Past reports have resulted in both significant gains and sharp sell-offs, often depending on the company's guidance and the market's perception of future growth.
High Volatility is Likely: The stock has demonstrated a tendency for large swings post-earnings. A positive surprise, especially with strong revenue growth and an optimistic outlook, could trigger a significant short-term rally.
The "Beat-and-Raise" Scenario: The most bullish outcome would be a beat on both revenue and EPS, coupled with a raise to the full-year guidance. This "beat-and-raise" is what the market has come to expect from TTD, and delivering on it could send the stock soaring.
The "Disappointment" Scenario: Given the stock's premium valuation, any miss or sign of deceleration could be a major negative catalyst. A miss on revenue, a cautious outlook on ad spending, or a slowdown in CTV growth could lead to a sharp sell-off as investors re-evaluate the company's growth trajectory.
Strategic Insight
For short-term traders, options strategies such as a straddle or strangle could be used to capitalize on the expected volatility without predicting the direction. However, this is a high-risk approach. For those with a strong conviction, a directional bet on the earnings outcome would be the preferred strategy, but it is essential to have a well-researched opinion based on the key metrics outlined above.
Options traders are targeting a profit zone between $65 and $100, using diagonal put spreads to capitalize on volatility skew. This suggests a market-implied ceiling near $100, aligning with analyst targets and technical resistance. Volatility skew is expected to be slightly bullish.
Summary
The Trade Desk (TTD) is set to report its Q2 2025 earnings on August 7. Analysts have high expectations, projecting revenue of approximately $685.9 million and adjusted EPS of $0.22. Key metrics for investors to watch include the company's revenue growth, especially within the Connected TV (CTV) segment, and any updates on full-year guidance.
Post-earnings, the stock is expected to be highly volatile, with a "beat-and-raise" scenario likely to trigger a rally, while any signs of a slowdown could lead to a sharp sell-off.
A strong Q2 beat—especially on margins and Kokai adoption—could reignite momentum toward $100, particularly if macro conditions stabilize. But valuation friction and sector rotation risk mean this is a high-convexity, high-volatility setup.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think TTD could produce an earnings beat and even a profitable quarter to set the path to $100 in 2025.
@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
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