1.
MY UPDATED THOUGHTS ON $Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$
I sold my position three weeks ago and told subscribers exactly why -- today, every major analyst note is echoing the same view.
The Trade Desk remains one of the cleanest operators in ad tech and a profit machine. But the 20% growth era is over -- not because of poor execution, but because the terrain has shifted. The LLM earthquake is already shaking the open internet, and in the new game, distribution is everything -- advertisers are steering more dollars toward $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ a $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ .
The Trade Desk will still do well, but “well” doesn’t justify a premium multiple in a digital economy rewriting its own rules. At 53x 2025 FCF going into this print, it was priced as if the old order still ruled. In my view, it belongs closer to 30x -- not bearish, just reality in a world where AI compresses the value of middlemen and funnels the spoils to those who own the data, the user, and the last click.
The bigger truth is this: in the AI economy, old winners aren’t guaranteed to be new winners.
2.
MY BIGGEST SMALL-CAP MISTAKES
1. Not pulling the trigger on pure-play drone names when the window was wide open. I saw the opportunity -- clear as day -- but waited for the “perfect” entry.
2. $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ was my own irony. I already believed they were built for what I call the overflow era -- that brief, high-margin window when AI compute demand outstrips what $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Azure, and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Cloud can supply. That’s pure dislocation alpha. But dislocation doesn’t last. Once the big clouds catch up, the independent GPU cloud story gets tested. Unless… you’ve already locked in sticky, differentiated demand. I think Nebius might. They don’t have to be AWS -- just own the slice of AI infrastructure where hyperscalers can’t (or won’t) compete.
3. I misread $Joby Aviation, Inc.(JOBY)$ by viewing it through $Archer Aviation Inc.(ACHR)$ capex-light lens -- wrong framing. Archer is modular and defense-native, monetizing before the commercial market opens. Joby is chasing the $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ -of-the-skies vision, controlling the aircraft, manufacturing, and network. Harder, heavier lift -- but if they nail it, the ceiling is much higher than Archer’s.
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