$AML3D LTD(AL3.AU)$ Volume is raising again with no news… yet… however, it seems clear that interest is circling… there is a lot going for this small cap defence player, at least that is what should happen in the background… the quietness in the announcement front should not be taken as weakness…

After the big announcement in early July on the EOI with US Navy, AML3D did receive a system order from one of the naval vessels shipbuilder, Austal USA, a subsidiary of fellow ASX listed $AUSTAL LTD(ASB.AU)$. This gives me the signal to pivot to Austal or Australian military front.

Not sure how many of you heard of the acronym, AUKUS? Not Donald Trump before he was briefed a couple of months ago. It means simply Australia, UK and US, a trilateral security partnership signed in 2021 between all the predecessor governments of those countries. Obviously, those signees have moved on. The focus was for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines and rotational basing US and UK nuclear-powered submarines while the build is taking place… a side dish of this pact is other military technologies collaboration.

With Trump on board and the so-called “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) slogan, this AUKUS partnership is now under scrutiny. Why have I delve into this seemingly irrelevant topic?

The main problem with this agreement is that US Navy has itself a great shortage of nuclear-powered submarines! The national interest should obviously come first given the MAGA slogan. The shipbuilding industry is simply lagging behind and not building fast enough.

Australian defence contractors and industry have been rubbing their hands gleefully when the big purchase deal was announced with the AUKUS partnership. Apparently, the wait for money to flow to Australian defence industry is seemingly endless. The only exception is Austal, which is actively involved with submarines and naval ships building in US. Another highly potential beneficiary will likely be… yup, AML3D. Already, AML3D has announced a new sale to Austal USA. I expect more to come, and not just to Austal USA, but Austal in general and other submarines builders in USA. Why?

A nuclear-powered submarine requires more than a million parts to assemble! Can you imagine how much work is there for 3D printing, just for these parts? The conventional build timeline is impossibly long, thus the big lag in delivery. The early indicator is the EOI with US Navy. To meet the demand from both US and Australian naval forces, the shipbuilding in USA has no choice but to change the way of manufacturing submarines… and other naval vessels.

Yes, it is still early days for AML3D. Until now, what I have written above is still speculative at best. Notwithstanding that, I see enough “noises” from the White House and from the contract wins to make an intelligent guess.

Will I be proven right? Only time will tell. Patience is once again the key. Similarly to many of my long term investments, I swooped in when no one wants it… will anyone join the ride on this defence small fry?

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