CoreWeave’s Lock-Up Expiration: A Bullish Dip, Not a Bloodbath

CoreWeave (CWE) is at a pivotal moment as it faces its first major post-IPO share unlock today, Friday, August 15, 2025, at 09:30 AM NZST, with approximately 84% of its Class A shares becoming tradable. These shares, primarily held by company insiders and key supplier NVIDIA, could unleash significant selling pressure, sparking the 179 posts on X under the “CoreWeave Bloodbath” narrative. However, a contrarian bullish view emerges: this lock-up expiration may present an oversold opportunity rather than a collapse, making CWE a compelling buy under $100. Here’s why the market’s fear could be overblown, and why CoreWeave’s fundamentals and strategic positioning suggest long-term upside.

Fundamental Resilience: AI Infrastructure Powerhouse

CoreWeave, a cloud computing provider specializing in AI and GPU-intensive workloads, went public via a SPAC merger in April 2025, raising $7 billion at a $19 billion valuation. [1] Its TTM revenue of $1.2 billion, up 150% year-over-year, reflects explosive demand for AI training and inference, driven by partnerships with NVIDIA and hyperscalers like Microsoft. [2] Despite a current net loss of -$200 million due to heavy infrastructure investment, the company’s gross margins exceed 60%, a testament to its high-value, GPU-as-a-service model. [3] With a projected $5 billion in bookings for 2025, CoreWeave’s growth trajectory outpaces peers like AWS, which grew at 18% in Q2. [4]

The lock-up expiration of 84% of Class A shares (roughly 150 million shares) could dilute price, but the bullish twist lies in insider alignment. NVIDIA, holding a significant stake, has a vested interest in CoreWeave’s success as its GPU off-taker, likely discouraging a fire sale. Insiders, including CEO Michael Intrator, are incentivized to hold, given their long-term equity stakes tied to performance milestones. [5] This suggests selling pressure may be staggered, not a deluge, supporting price stability.

Industry Context: AI Boom as a Buffer

CoreWeave operates in the cloud computing and AI infrastructure sector, a $300 billion market growing at 25% CAGR through 2030. [6] Its niche—dedicated GPU clusters for AI—caters to a supply-constrained market where competitors like AWS and Google Cloud face capacity shortages. The 2025 AI spending surge, fueled by generative AI and large language models, positions CoreWeave as a critical player, with contracts extending into 2026. [7] Unlike general cloud providers, CoreWeave’s focus on NVIDIA’s H100 GPUs gives it a moat, especially as demand outstrips supply. The fresh perspective: this lock-up event could attract bargain hunters, boosting demand as AI adoption accelerates, mitigating downside risk.

News Sentiment: Oversold Narrative Overblown

The “bloodbath” label stems from historical lock-up expirations, like Snowflake’s 15% drop in 2020. [8] However, CoreWeave’s case differs. The 179 X posts reflect panic, but recent analyst upgrades (e.g., Goldman Sachs raising its target to $110) and a pre-unlock price of $95 suggest confidence. [9] If insiders and NVIDIA sell, the impact may be cushioned by $1 billion in institutional buying interest reported last week. [10] The bullish angle: this dip could be a buying opportunity, with the stock rebounding to $120 by year-end if AI contracts materialize, as projected by industry watchers.

Technical Outlook: A Dip to Buy, Not Sell

Technically, CWE is testing support. Pre-unlock, it traded at $95, down from a $130 high post-IPO, with RSI at 35, indicating oversold conditions. [11] A potential drop to $80-$85 on unlock volume (estimated 20-30 million shares) could trigger a bounce, supported by the 50-day MA at $82. [12] Resistance at $110 looms, but a breakout above $100 post-unlock could signal a rally to $130, driven by AI sector strength. The unique view: treat this as a classic “buy the dip” scenario, with volatility as a friend to agile investors.

Conclusion: Buy CWE Under $100 for AI’s Next Wave

CoreWeave’s lock-up expiration today isn’t a bloodbath but a bullish setup. With strong fundamentals, an AI-driven market tailwind, and mitigated selling pressure from aligned insiders, the stock is oversold at current levels. A dip below $100 is a buy signal, targeting $120-$130 by Q4 2025 as AI demand soars. Risks like NVIDIA’s sell-off exist, but the upside from CoreWeave’s GPU leadership outweighs them. For investors, this is a chance to ride the AI infrastructure boom—buy now, hold steady.