Analysis: CoreWeave Post–Lock-Up Expiration

1. Is CoreWeave oversold given the lock-up expiration?

Significant sell pressure: Following the lock-up expiration, insiders—including director Jack Cogen—offloaded more than $1 billion worth of shares via coordinated block trades organized by Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs .

Sharp recent decline: The stock fell approximately 35% over two days, in response to both the lock-up news and weaker-than-expected Q2 earnings, including bloated expenses (~$1.2 billion) and widening losses .

Historical context: Market data indicates that, on average, IPO-lock-up expirations result in a 2.4% decline over the following month, but for large-cap stocks—such as CoreWeave’s ~$57 billion market cap—the average drop is much smaller (~0.5%) .

In short, while CoreWeave has experienced a marked sell-off, much of it appears priced in, particularly from a technical reaction to lock-up expiration and earnings. The extent of the decline suggests oversold conditions in the near term—though underlying fundamentals may still warrant caution.

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2. Is it a viable buy under $100?

Bulls might argue:

Impressive top-line growth: Q2 revenue surged to $1.2 billion, more than tripling year-over-year .

Strong market demand: CoreWeave remains pivotal in the AI infrastructure space, serving major clients like Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia .

Positive analyst activity: Some firms, including Citi and JPMorgan, maintain bullish outlooks, with JPMorgan even raising its target to around $135 .

Retail contrarian buzz: Sentiment on platforms like Stocktwits shows resilient optimism, with posts such as “$CRWV dipped below $100. So hedge funds load up cheap. To $200+ we go.” .

Bears raise valid concerns:

Aggressive spending & leverage: CoreWeave is pursuing capital expenditures of $20–23 billion in 2025 and may need to take on ~$10 billion in debt to fund growth .

High valuation: The stock trades at a steep multiple (~36× forward operating income), with some analysts warning of unsustainability .

Merger risk: The proposed $9 billion all-stock acquisition of Core Scientific is under scrutiny; its deteriorating share value could imply value losses for Core Scientific shareholders .

Analyst ratings: According to StockAnalysis.com, the consensus rating is “Hold,” with a 12-month average price target near $106.79—only modest upside from current levels .

Profitability still bleak: Persistent losses, high short interest (around 46% of float), and weak backlog growth suggest lingering operational risks .

Verdict on the $100 level:

Potential tactical entry: If you are a speculative investor with high risk tolerance, some might view the sub-$100 level as a buy-on-weakness opportunity, banking on strong AI demand and a potential short squeeze.

Need for caution: However, if you prioritize fundamentals, you may prefer more clarity on the Core Scientific acquisition’s terms, margin improvement, and debt servicing before committing.

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Summary Table

Question Insight

Is it oversold? Yes—sharp decline driven by insider selling and earnings reaction suggests near-term oversold conditions.

Buy under $100? Speculative investors might see opportunity. Conservative investors should wait for clarity on capex, margins, and deal terms.

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Final Thoughts

CoreWeave’s stock appears to have overreacted to the lock-up expiration and Q2 earnings, potentially offering a contrarian entry point. Yet, significant structural risks—including high debt, capital intensity, and merger complexity—still loom.

If you’re inclined to buy below $100, consider starting with a small, scaled position, and set clear thresholds for additional investment or exit based on upcoming milestones such as integration of Core Scientific, debt reduction progress, or profitability improvements.