$Intuit(INTU)$ is scheduled to report its Q4 and full-year fiscal 2025 earnings on August 21, 2025. The company has a strong track record of beating analyst expectations, having done so for five consecutive quarters.
By looking at how INTU have performed over the five consecutive quarters, this stock looks strong but it is a good time to enter before its earnings which is happening on the 21 August 2025 after the market close. I think we need to take a look at how the segment INTU is in doing, furthermore, we are seeing rotation, which could mean there might be some volatilty hitting INTU from complementing stocks.
So in this article, while I examine how Intuit fiscal Q4 2025 earnings would be like, I would share my thoughts on some short-term trading approach which I think might be feasible.
Revenue: Wall Street analysts expect Intuit to report Q4 revenue in the range of $3.73 billion to $3.77 billion. This would represent a significant increase from the $3.18 billion reported in the same quarter last year. Intuit's own forecast from May 2025 was for revenue in the range of $3.72 billion to $3.76 billion. A key driver for this is the expected growth in its Global Business Solutions segment.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts project EPS to be in the range of $2.61 to $2.78 per share, compared to $1.99 per share a year ago. Intuit's own guidance for non-GAAP diluted EPS was $2.63 to $2.68.
Summary of Intuit's Fiscal Q3 2025 Earnings
Intuit reported a strong third quarter for fiscal year 2025, beating both analyst earnings per share (EPS) and revenue expectations. The company's performance was driven by a successful tax season and continued momentum across all its key business segments.
Financial Highlights:
Revenue: Intuit reported a total revenue of $7.8 billion, a 15% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $11.65, an 18% jump from the prior year and well above the analyst consensus.
Segment Performance:
Consumer Group (TurboTax): Revenue grew by 11%, fueled by strong performance in its TurboTax Live offerings. The company saw a significant acceleration in TurboTax Live customers and revenue growth, which was a key driver of the overall positive results.
Global Business Solutions (QuickBooks, Mailchimp): This segment, the company's largest, saw revenue grow by 19%. The Online Ecosystem within this group was particularly strong, with a 20% increase in revenue, driven by higher prices and customer growth.
Credit Karma: The fastest-growing segment, Credit Karma, delivered a 31% increase in revenue. The company noted that its seamless "zero-click" login for Credit Karma members to access TurboTax contributed to new customer acquisition.
Market Reaction: Following the strong report and positive guidance, Intuit's stock price surged, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.
Lessons Learned from the Guidance
The guidance provided by Intuit's management was a crucial part of the report and offers several key lessons for investors:
Beating and Raising is a Powerful Signal: Intuit not only beat its Q3 estimates but also raised its full-year fiscal 2025 guidance across all key metrics—revenue, operating income, and EPS. This is a very strong signal to the market that the company's performance is not a one-off event but a sustainable trend. It indicates management's confidence in the business's underlying strength and future prospects.
AI is a Central Growth Driver, Not Just a Buzzword: The earnings call emphasized Intuit's strategy to become an "AI-driven expert platform." The company provided concrete examples of how AI is translating into tangible results, such as:
Efficiency: AI-enabled tools have reduced the average time customers spend on their tax returns and improved payment conversion rates for overdue invoices.
Customer Experience: Intuit's AI-enabled human experts and "done-for-you" experiences are resonating with customers and driving growth, particularly in the high-value TurboTax Live segment.
Disruption: The company is explicitly stating its intent to use AI to disrupt the broader assisted tax category, which is a massive market.
Cross-Platform Synergy is Gaining Momentum: The guidance and commentary highlighted the successful synergy between Intuit's different platforms. The integration between Credit Karma and TurboTax, for example, is demonstrably working to drive new customer acquisition. This confirms that Intuit's strategy of creating an "end-to-end platform" is not just a theoretical concept but a reality that is adding real value.
Investing in High-Value Services Pays Off: Intuit's guidance showed a focus on attracting high-value customers. The company's success in growing its TurboTax Live customer base and revenue, even while "yielding share with lower ARPR customers," demonstrates a deliberate and effective strategy. This shift toward more profitable customer segments is a positive sign for future margin expansion.
The key lesson from Intuit's Q3 2025 earnings is that the company is successfully executing its long-term strategy of becoming an AI-driven, expert-powered platform. The positive results and the "beating and raising" guidance instilled significant investor confidence, proving that the combination of strong fundamentals, strategic innovation (especially with AI), and successful cross-platform integration is a powerful formula for growth.
Intuit (INTU) Price Target
Based on 27 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Intuit in the last 3 months. The average price target is $699.23 with a high forecast of $938.00 and a low forecast of $560.00. The average price target represents a 17.41% change from the last price of $699.23.
Short-Term Trading Opportunities
Earnings reports can create significant volatility and present opportunities for short-term trading, but they also carry a high degree of risk. Here are some potential scenarios and factors to consider:
Beating Expectations: If Intuit reports revenue and EPS that significantly exceed analyst and company guidance, the stock could see an upward move. This is a common pattern for companies with a strong history of "earnings beats."
Missing Expectations: A miss on either revenue or EPS, or a disappointing outlook for the next fiscal year, could lead to a sharp decline in the stock price. This is particularly relevant given the company's high valuation (P/E ratio).
Guidance is Key: The most significant market reaction often stems from the company's guidance for the next quarter or fiscal year. Even if the current quarter's results are good, a weak outlook can cause the stock to fall. Conversely, a positive outlook could propel the stock higher, even with a mixed quarterly report.
Segment Performance: A weak performance in a key growth driver like Global Business Solutions or Credit Karma could spook investors, regardless of the overall numbers.
The current market rotation can affect software stocks like Intuit (INTU), but the impact may be nuanced. While some broader market trends, like a shift towards value stocks or a rotation out of tech, might pressure some software companies, Intuit's strong fundamentals and growth potential could help it weather the storm. Additionally, specific industry trends like the adoption of AI and tax law changes could create tailwinds for Intuit.
Risk Warning: Trading around earnings is highly speculative. The stock's movement is not solely based on the reported numbers but also on market sentiment, the company's commentary, and overall economic conditions. It's crucial to have a clear trading plan and risk management strategy. For example, some traders might use options to limit their downside risk or to capitalize on increased volatility.
Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
The bears are in control as we can see from the daily chart that it is trading below 50-day MA and it is in consolidation, so this is also affected by the pullback of the big caps and tech stocks, so we will need to see if INTU can continue its strong track record in order to reverse the trend from bearish to bullish.
Summary
Intuit (INTU) is set to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on August 21. Analysts are forecasting revenue in the range of $3.73 billion to $3.77 billion and EPS between $2.61 and $2.78. This would mark a significant increase from the same period last year, continuing Intuit's streak of consecutive earnings beats.
Key metrics to watch include the performance of the Global Business Solutions segment, which houses QuickBooks and Mailchimp, as well as Credit Karma. These are the company's primary growth drivers. Investors will also be keen on Intuit's fiscal 2026 guidance, as this forward-looking outlook often has a greater impact on stock movement than the quarterly results themselves. The company's commentary on its AI strategy and its execution will also be a key point of interest.
For short-term trading, a strong report could lead to an upward trend, while a miss or a weak outlook could trigger a decline. The volatility around earnings reports presents both opportunities and risks, requiring careful consideration and a clear trading strategy.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think INTU could continue to produce the strong track record of beating expectations.
@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
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