📈 Xiaomi (01810.HK / XIACY) — 2025 Outlook

🔍 Technicals

Xiaomi has been in a solid uptrend this year, trading near HK$52–53 after rallying on Q2 earnings.

• Resistance: HK$56–61 (previous top) 🚧

• Support: HK$49–50, then HK$45 🛡️

• Momentum: Break above HK$56 could re-test highs, while slip under HK$49 risks pullback.

👉 Chart shows bulls in control, but profit-taking likely near resistance.

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💰 Fundamentals

Q2 results beat expectations:

• Revenue: RMB116B (+31% YoY) 📊

• Adj. Net Profit: RMB10.8–11.9B (+75% YoY) 🚀

• Smartphones: RMB45.5B (-2% YoY) 📱 — pressure from ASP declines.

• IoT & Lifestyle: RMB38.7B (+45% YoY) 🏠 — strong demand for appliances & wearables.

• EVs: RMB20.6B (~3× YoY) 🚗 — still early but growing fast.

Valuation remains rich: ~P/E 52 trailing, ~30 forward, P/S ~3.3. Market is clearly pricing in EV upside.

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⚡ EV Foray & Growth Potential

• SU7 sedan launched 2024; YU7 SUV launched June 2025, starting RMB253.5k — drew 240k+ orders in 18 hrs 🤯.

• Deliveries: >300k cumulative by July; ~30k in July alone 🏎️.

• Global expansion: Europe entry eyed for 2027 🌍.

📊 Revenue scenarios (2026 est.):

• Bear: 300k units × RMB230k = RMB69B

• Base: 500k units × RMB240k = RMB120B

• Bull: 800k units × RMB250k = RMB200B

At Base case, EVs could contribute ~25% of group revenue — a major shift from today’s smartphone-heavy mix.

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🌏 Macro & Market Context

• China support: RMB81B trade-in subsidies for appliances, phones, EVs → tailwind for Xiaomi 🏠📱🚗.

• EV market: NEV penetration ~50% in China; July sales +27% YoY ⚡. Fierce competition (Tesla, BYD, Nio) keeps margins tight.

• Smartphones: Global shipments just +1% YoY — stabilizing but sluggish 📉.

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📊 Investment View

• Bull case: Xiaomi transforms from smartphone brand to integrated tech + EV giant, leveraging brand, ecosystem, and IoT synergies. EVs add new growth leg. 💎

• Bear case: EV margins crushed in price war; smartphone ASPs keep sliding; China demand recovery stalls. ⚠️

• Key risks: Trade tariffs (EU/US on China EVs), competition, execution on EV scaling.

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🎯 Takeaway

Xiaomi’s 31% revenue growth shows the EV pivot is working. IoT remains a strong second engine, while smartphones stabilize. The stock trades at premium multiples, justified only if EV scaling hits at least 500k units/year by 2026 with healthy margins.

For traders: HK$56 breakout = bullish continuation.

For investors: Watch EV delivery cadence + China consumer data.

PS: Do your own research too and not financial advice. I entered Xiaomi at 14HKD at the announcement they venturing into EV, it was a slight gamble that works out. Seems like they are really making waves. Let's see