Did $MDB's 44% Surge Signal Strong Growth?

TigerPicks
09-01

Stocks fell on Friday as investors took some money off the table into a long weekend following a new $S&P 500(.SPX)$ record and solid $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ earnings last week. New inflation data showed rising prices was still a risk heading into the new month.

The best-performing concepts is DeepSeek Concept. Considering the different perceptions of the stock, this time TigerPicks chose $MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$ to have a fundamental highlight to help users understand it better.

$MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$

MongoDB's Near-Term Prospects

MongoDB is a database platform that makes life easier for developers who are dealing with messy data.

Instead of forcing data into rigid tables like traditional databases, MongoDB handles all sorts of unstructured data with ease. The example that I often make is think about social media data, where posts are sometimes deleted and then edited in real time with an image. It's just much more complex than simply using Excel or something similar.

Plus, it’s got built-in features like search, which means developers can do more complex queries and AI-related stuff without having to bolt on extra tools. For companies, this translates into faster app development and easier scaling.

In sum, MongoDB helps developers get stuff done more quickly while keeping data flexible.

Right now, things are looking pretty good for MongoDB as they’re getting traction with startups in the AI space, which could be a huge growth area over the next few years.

With that background in mind, let's discuss its fundamentals.

Revenue Growth Rates Could Stabilize at High 10s%

MDB revenue growth ratesMDB revenue growth rates

MongoDB reported its Q2 FY26 earnings, where revenue grew at an accelerated pace of 24% YoY to $591.4M. This is over 800 basis points higher compared to what management had guided in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, when it comes to profitability, its non-GAAP operating margin expanded 400 basis points to 15%, vs. management’s expectation of a 10.3% margin for the quarter.

In other words, when management had earlier guided for both its top and bottom line growth rates to shrink in Q2, MongoDB not only beat both estimates but also managed to grow both its revenue and earnings at an accelerated rate compared to the previous quarter, which led to the boost in investor sentiment post-earnings.

The strength in such an outsized beat in revenue was driven by Atlas revenue, which grew 29% YoY during the quarter (up from 26% in Q1) and contributed 74% to Total Revenue (up from 72% revenue contribution in the previous quarter). Meanwhile, its non-Atlas revenue also came in ahead of expectations as they saw success in selling incremental workloads into their existing EA (Enterprise Advanced) customer base while simultaneously benefitting from more multiyear deals than expected.

Looking forward, MongoDB management has raised their guidance on both the top and bottom lines by 3.9% and 17.6% YoY, respectively, which is significant in my opinion. This means that MongoDB is now expected to grow its full-year FY26 revenues by 16.9% YoY, with a non-GAAP operating margin of close to 14% (as opposed to previous guidance of a 10% margin).

There is no doubt that Q2 was a huge success in instilling investor confidence in the company.

The Bottom Line

All in all, the fundamentals are solid, revenue growth is looking stronger than I expected, and the real kicker is the new CFO, who’s already showing that he can trim the fat and boost free cash flow.

With $310 million likely this year and a potential $450 million next year, the business is starting to generate real cash, which makes the 52x forward free cash flow valuation feel reasonable to me.

Sure, there are risks—competition from open-source alternatives and the need to keep growth humming—but when I look at the combination of solid growth, a cash-rich, debt-free balance sheet, and a management team that’s clearly focused on profitability, it all adds up to a compelling Inflection setup.

This looks good.

Stock Price Forecast:

Here are the target price forecasts for the next 12 months from analysts.

Stock Price Forecast:

Here are the target price forecasts for the next 12 months from analysts.

Based on 16 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Carnival in the last 3 months. The average price target is $32.36 with a high forecast of $38.00 and a low forecast of $22.00. The average price target represents a 10.56% change from the last price of $29.27.

Resource:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4817082-mongodb-q2-atlas-soars-ai-roars

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4817005-mongodb-earnings-cfo-shake-up-matters-for-investors


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Resource:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4813121-carnival-let-the-meltdown-play-out-buy-the-upcoming-dip


For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:

🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!

Find out more here:

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Ron Anne
    09-03
    Ron Anne
    MDB’s 24% revenue beat—can Atlas growth hit 30% next quarter?
  • Phyllis Strachey
    09-03
    Phyllis Strachey
    52x FCF seems steep; wait for a 15% pullback to buy.
  • BaronLyly
    09-01
    BaronLyly
    Amazing insights on $MDB! 🌟 Keep it up
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