My take: Tesla breaks out only

My take: Tesla breaks out only if the software flywheel outruns auto cyclicality. The three unlocks:

FSD take-rate + subscription ARPU inflects—software gross margin is the oxygen.

Energy (Megapack) scale drives revenue quality and smooths auto volatility.

Credible robotaxi/regulatory path—even a line-of-sight narrative moves multiples.

What I’m watching: auto margin ex-credits, deferred revenue from software, energy backlog, and capex per incremental kWh.

Trade plan: Chase strength only on a high-volume reclaim of major moving averages with software metrics improving; otherwise, rent the range.

Risk: price cuts outpacing cost deflation, autonomy stalls, geopolitical tariffs.

TSLA doesn’t moon on metal; it moons when software and energy out-earn the cars.

GEMI Below IPO Price vs FIGR Keep Running? Which to Buy Now?

Gemini Space fell below its $28 IPO price just days after listing. However, Figure is up 72% in two weeks. With GEMI now trading below its IPO level, would you see this as a buying opportunity or a warning sign of further downside? Is Figure aiming for 100% upside this year? Would you chase Figure or bottom Gemini?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Which to Buy Now?","type":3,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/special/discussion&rndata={\"themeId\":bdaba41c37d446a2b533d054453f88bd}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"Gemini Space fell below its $28 IPO price just days after listing. \nHowever, Figure is up 72% in two weeks.\nWith GEMI now trading below its IPO level, would you see this as a buying opportunity or a warning sign of further downside?\nIs Figure aiming for 100% upside this year?\nWould you chase Figure or bottom Gemini?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c0415e40f3ab9450c52c076aa1601c03"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body>My take: Tesla breaks out only if the software flywheel outruns auto cyclicality. The three unlocks:\nFSD take-rate + subscription ARPU inflects—software gross margin is the oxygen.\nEnergy (Megapack) scale drives revenue quality and smooths auto volatility.\nCredible robotaxi/regulatory path—even a line-of-sight narrative moves multiples.\nWhat I’m watching: auto margin ex-credits, deferred revenue from software, energy backlog, and capex per incremental kWh.\nTrade plan: Chase strength only on a high-volume reclaim of major moving averages with software metrics improving; otherwise, rent the range.\nRisk: price cuts outpacing cost deflation, autonomy stalls, geopolitical tariffs.\nTSLA doesn’t moon on metal; it moons when software and energy out-earn the cars.</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>My take: Tesla breaks out only if the software flywheel outruns auto cyclicality. The three unlocks:\nFSD take-rate + subscription ARPU inflects—software gross margin is the oxygen.\nEnergy (Megapack) scale drives revenue quality and smooths auto volatility.\nCredible robotaxi/regulatory path—even a line-of-sight narrative moves multiples.\nWhat I’m watching: auto margin ex-credits, deferred revenue from software, energy backlog, and capex per incremental kWh.\nTrade plan: Chase strength only on a high-volume reclaim of major moving averages with software metrics improving; otherwise, rent the range.\nRisk: price cuts outpacing cost deflation, autonomy stalls, geopolitical tariffs.\nTSLA doesn’t moon on metal; it moons when software and energy out-earn the cars.</body></html>","text":"My take: Tesla breaks out only if the software flywheel outruns auto cyclicality. The three unlocks: FSD take-rate + subscription ARPU inflects—software gross margin is the oxygen. Energy (Megapack) scale drives revenue quality and smooths auto volatility. Credible robotaxi/regulatory path—even a line-of-sight narrative moves multiples. What I’m watching: auto margin ex-credits, deferred revenue from software, energy backlog, and capex per incremental kWh. Trade plan: Chase strength only on a high-volume reclaim of major moving averages with software metrics improving; otherwise, rent the range. Risk: price cuts outpacing cost deflation, autonomy stalls, geopolitical tariffs. 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