Weekly: Fedspeak and PCE to test stock market at record high

Last Week's Recap

U.S. Market - Indexes at Record Highs

• Major indexes: The S&P 500 (+1.22%), Nasdaq Composite (+2.21%) and Dow (+1.05%) closed the week at fresh record highs and posted their third (S&P/Nasdaq) / second (Dow) consecutive weekly gains, with the Nasdaq leading on tech strength. The benchmark average broke 6,600 and closed the week at 6,631.96. The small-cap Russell 2000 notched its seventh weekly advance.

• Fed rate cut: As expected, the Federal Reserve lower the policy rate by 25 bps (to a 4.00%–4.25% range) and signaled the possibility of additional cuts later in 2025. Powell’s press conference reiterated the Fed’s dual-mandate focus and emphasized labor-market risks. However, the "dot plot" projections showed policymakers were closely divided: Nine penciled in just one more quarter-point move this year, while 10 saw at least another 50 basis points in rate cuts as appropriate.

• While September has historically delivered pullbacks, this year’s market has defied that pattern — climbing about 38% since April's dive. Still, with the S&P 500 trading at 22x forward earnings and volatility suppressed — the CBOE VIX stayed as lower as 15.45.

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U.S. Sectors & Stocks — Semis/Tech Led Rally

• Sectors: Sectors: Communication Services (+3.6%) and Technology (+2.5%) outperformed the week, while Consumer Staples and Real Estate lagged. Defensive names weakened as investors rotated into higher-beta, growth-oriented exposures.

• Intel (INTC): Spiked over 20% after Nvidia announced a $5B investment and joint development of data center/PC products, boosting semis and broader tech sentiment.

• Tesla (TSLA): Extended its breakout to an eight-month high. CEO Elon Musk disclosed a $1B stock purchase on Sept. 12—his first since Feb. 2020—while highlighting progress on Optimus, the AI5 chip, and other projects.

• Nvidia (NVDA): Volatile week—slid on reports Beijing barred Big Tech from buying its China-focused AI chips, but rebounded on the Intel collaboration news.

• Apple (AAPL): Gained 4.9% as J.P. Morgan raised its PT to $280 (from $255). The iPhone 17 launched globally on Friday, driving retail momentum.

• Alphabet (GOOGL): Crossed the $3T market cap milestone. Google Gemini became the No. 1 free app in the U.S. App Store, surpassing ChatGPT and Perplexity.

• ASML (ASML): Surged 14.5% on accelerating EUV equipment demand, aided by Nvidia and Intel’s $5B partnership, per Bank of America.

• CrowdStrike (CRWD): Jumped 15% after guiding FY27 ARR higher. Management reiterated FY26 ARR growth will reaccelerate to 40%+ in H2.

• Novo Nordisk (NVO): Rallied nearly 12% after its oral Wegovy showed 16.6% average weight loss over 64 weeks vs. 2.7% for placebo in a clinical trial.

• Netskope (NTSK): Leapt 18% in its Nasdaq debut after pricing at $19/share, above range. Operates a cloud-based Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) platform.

• Quantum Computing: IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti (RGTI), and D-Wave (QBTS) all hit record highs. D-Wave hosted its Qubits Japan 2025 conference; IonQ announced a DOE partnership with Honeywell (HON) and EPB of Chattanooga.

• FedEx (FDX): Gained 2.3% on an earnings beat and stronger demand outlook. Domestic volumes rose 5%. FY26 revenue growth guided at 4–6% (vs. consensus 1%), though CFO warned of a $1B global trade headwind.

• Bullish (BLSH): Saw a remarkable 33.45% increase after reporting strong Q2 earnings and securing a BitLicense from the New York State Department of Financial Services.

Hong Kong Market - HSI Gained 0.6%

• HSI: Gained 0.6% for the week, supported by tech strength. Baidu and Alibaba led as AI momentum and strategic partnerships drove renewed investor interest.

• Alibaba (9988.HK): Advanced 5.3% to a YTD high. Successfully issued $3.2B in zero-coupon convertible senior notes to bolster cloud infrastructure and international operations.

• NIO (9866.HK): Surged 21.9% after completing a $1.16B equity offering to expand EV technology and infrastructure.

• Industrial Securities' chief economist Wang Han noted that narrowing U.S.-China yield spreads post-Fed cut should support the yuan, with overseas capital inflows expected to follow a “three-step path”—first Hong Kong stocks, then yuan FX, and finally mainland A-shares.

Singapore Market - STI Saw a Pullback

• STI: Pulled back 0.96% to 4,302.71 amid mixed economic data and external uncertainties

• Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (SGX:BS6): Rose 3.45% on robust containership feeder demand and EPS upgrades by Daiwa. Early delivery slots reinforced investor confidence.

• DBS (SGX:D05): Declined 2.55% despite unveiling a new trading/lending solution on its Digital Exchange with Franklin Templeton and Ripple, offering tokenized money market funds and stablecoins for accredited investors.

• Keppel (SGX:BN4): Gained 1.4% after announcing a partnership with Dell Technologies to co-develop data centers and next-gen AI platforms across Asia.

Australian Market - ASX 200 Saw a 3rd Weekly Decline

• ASX 200: Fell 1.03% to 8,773.5, marking a third straight weekly loss as global uncertainty weighed on sentiment.

• Policy Outlook: Market focus shifts to the RBA’s Nov. 3 meeting; expectations of a potential rate cut could provide upside unless adverse data emerges. Some analysts see scope for new highs in coming weeks.

• Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX.AU): Climbed 6.1% on optimism over commercial prospects for its prostate cancer treatment, lifting the healthcare sector.

The Week Ahead

Macro Factors - Fedspeak in Focus

• This week, a raft of Fedspeak will highlight the calendar, with remarks from newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran (Mon) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell (Tue), will be the key events for close Fed-watchers.

• Inflation Data: Friday’s PCE report is expected to show headline inflation at +2.7% YoY and core at +2.9% YoY. Powell reiterated last week that the labor market remains the Fed’s more immediate concern, but also cautioned there is “no risk-free path” given inflation still above the 2% target.

• Investors will monitor Friday’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey alongside mortgage rate trends, which remain near one-year lows (per Freddie Mac).

• Earnings Watch: Focus on Micron (MU), with investors looking for updates on AI-driven demand and revenue guidance following a recent upward revision. Costco (COST) will also report, offering a key read on consumer spending patterns.