$BBAI 20251219 5.5 CALL$ This is 2nd Journal of this week. Journaling is a important process as it records the thoughts.

[Cool]  Disclaimer: I'm not a licensed financial adviser. This post reflects my personal trading review and education only. Please do your own research and seek qualified professional advice before investing.

[Applaud]  AAR of this trade.

📈$BigBear.ai Holdings(BBAI)$  is in my watch list due to these.

⚙️AI theme

☯️Period 9 Pick

📍Small Cap (Early access)

🧲Niche using PLTR technology

🛡US Defense contract

📊Entry Setup

📉Big drop during earning but strong green candle indicate strong support on 13 Aug 2025.

📆Focus on short turn rebound like United Health - which fails

📈2nd Entry 9 Sep 2025 due to rebound from bottom, for DCA

🚪Exit Strategy

🔑Original waiting for 3 Months till next earning.

🍞First Exit due to consumption and prolonged exit. Mean for short-term traders.

🍾Exit to day due to hitting 200% profit and at 2nd highest Resistance Point

🧮💻📖For those that needs to data analytics

🧠 BigBear.ai (NYSE: BBAI)— Who, who's

BigBear.ai : Provide AI-powered decision intelligence—helping defense, logistics, and commercial clients make sense of complex data.

⚔️Main clients: U.S. Department of War + national security agencies.

🏥Other uses: supply chain optimization, digital twins, healthcare analytics.

📊 SWOT Analysis

Strengths 💪

✅️Strong defense contracts (multi-year deals with DoD & Army).

✅️Specialized decision-making AI (not just general AI, but tailored for operations & mission-critical use).

✅️Expanding into supply chain + logistics, giving room outside defense.

Weaknesses ⚠️

❌️Falling revenue (Q2 2025: −18% YoY).

❌️Still unprofitable (EPS −$0.06).

❌️Accounting restatement delays hurt investor confidence.

❌️Heavy dependence on government contracts → lumpy revenues.

Opportunities 🚀

🥇U.S. defense spending on AI is growing fast.

🥈New contracts (Army, Joint Chiefs, NSA) could fuel growth.

🥉Potential to expand commercial side (digital twins/logistics).

Threats 🥊

🚧Strong rivals:

Palantir ($Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  ) 🛡️ (biggest name in gov-data AI)

C3.ai ($C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$  ) 🤖 (enterprise AI apps)

Booz Allen ($Booz Allen Hamilton(BAH)$  ) & Leidos (LDOS) (large defense contractors with AI divisions)

UiPath (PATH) ⚙️ (automation & workflows).

🚧Budget cuts / delays in DoD spending.

🚧Small-cap stock → high volatility.

📈 Analysts & Market View

📋Consensus price target: ~$5.8–$6.0 (range $3.5–$8). (Based on average from Reuters, Investopedia, Barron’s, MarketBeat, TradingView)

🧾Earnings: Revenue miss in Q2 2025 but EPS slightly better than expected.

📡Media tone: cautious—warns about slowing growth and filing delays.

🔑Investor takeaway: Still a “show me” story → needs to prove contracts can turn into steady cashflow.

🔮 Outlook & Risks

Near-term view (next 1–3 quarters)

Momentum depends on converting pilot contracts into bigger recurring deals.

Expect swings around newsflow: new awards, backlog updates, or more filing issues.

Catalysts 🌟

💠New DoD task orders (Army, CDAO, Joint Staff).

💠Broader AI adoption in U.S. defense budgets.

Risks ⚡

⚠️Contract delays / cancellations.

⚠️Trust issues after accounting restatement.

⚠️Strong competition from Palantir & others.

⚠️Stock volatility amplified by being a small-cap AI name.

📌 Bottom Line

BBAI is a real player in defense AI with ongoing contracts. But right now, it’s a high-risk, high-reward trade:

👍 Good for short-term traders who follow defense AI headlines.

👎 Risky for long-term holders until revenue stabilizes and accounting credibility is restored.

@TigerPicks  @MillionaireTiger  @TigerClub  @Terra_Incognita  @MojoStellar