๐ MRVL Part 2: From Caution to Breakout
On 19 Sep, MRVL was trading around $74โ75, and we noted cautious optimism: while sector volatility was high, AI/data-center demand, analyst sentiment, and potential buyback programs were key catalysts to watch. Some readers speculated that a price upgrade might be coming โ and indeed, Needham, BofA, and Technology Giant delivered.
๐ What Has Happened Since
โข Stock Performance: MRVL has surged to ~$84.5, breaking above the $82โ84 resistance zone we highlighted in Part 1 โ a ~12% gain in 10 days.
โข Share Repurchase & ASR: The $5B buyback + $1B accelerated share repurchase has materially reduced float and added mechanical support.
โข Analyst & CEO Signals: CEO Matt Murphy reinforced data center growth, while analysts (Needham) raised price targets to $95, citing momentum in AI and XPU design wins.
๐ฎ Where MRVL Could Go Next
โข Near-term: Holding above $84 sets up a breakout to $86โ88, but watch for typical end-of-month and option-expiry volatility.
โข Medium-term: October will test whether MRVLโs fundamentals โ design wins, margins, and AI/data-center adoption โ can sustain the rally. The buyback and sector tailwinds remain supportive.
Bottom line: MRVL has delivered on the upside catalysts highlighted on 19 Sep, turning cautious optimism into a strong breakout. Momentum remains intact. While weโre seeing small dips here and there, itโs like a trampoline โ bouncing back stronger and higher. Sector volatility and October swings call for careful risk management, but in my view, another breakout this week is likely, potentially reaching around $88.
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