About a year or two back, a lot of people were skeptical about Palantir (PLTR):

Critics said it was too dependent on government contracts, had unclear profitability, and that its commercial business wasn’t scaling fast enough.

Its stock went through a long period of underperformance, and many analysts outright dismissed it as “overhyped.”

But in 2023–2024, Palantir turned things around with consistent profits, strong AI/data platforms (especially AIP), and new contracts that proved its tech had both government and commercial demand. Now it’s widely recognized as a serious player in AI and defense-tech.

Now, BigBear.ai (BBAI) is facing very similar criticism today:

People say it’s too small, too dependent on government contracts, not profitable, and competing against giants like Palantir.

But, like Palantir, it is in the defense/intelligence + AI analytics space, which is gaining massive demand with rising geopolitical tensions.

If BigBear can survive this “doubt phase” and show clear wins — like steady government deals, commercial AI adoption, or unique products — it could potentially follow a Palantir-like path.

The big difference is scale: Palantir already had huge government contracts before it was profitable, while BigBear is much smaller and has to prove it can scale beyond niche contracts.