Watching Divergences as Small Caps Lead

2025-10-06

📅 6 Oct 2025

The S&P continues to grind higher, but divergences are starting to creep in — three on the daily chart and five on the QQQs. It’s not a full red flag yet, but worth keeping an open mind as momentum begins to stretch.

The breakout in small caps is a big deal. IWM has cleared multi-year resistance, and historically, small-cap leadership tends to support broader market strength.

Meanwhile, the dollar still looks heavy, but those multi-timeframe squeezes could flip long and turn into a headwind for risk assets. Same story with the VIX — if those squeezes fire to the upside, volatility could spike quickly.

Amid that backdrop, I’m adding a new long setup in **MP**.

🎯 Trading Plan

Adding $MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ Nov 21 $70

Cutting $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$

[Mid-Autumn Festival] 🌙 Share Your Mid-Autumn Glow With Us!

The Mid-Autumn Festival is here — a time for mooncakes, lanterns, and stories under the full moon. One of the most famous legends is about Chang’e, the Moon Goddess who flew to the moon after drinking an elixir of immortality. What would you do to celebrate on mid-autumn festival? Do you share your mooncakes with family, friends, or colleagues? Are you evil, neutral, or good when it comes to mooncake-eating?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Ah_Meng
2025-10-07
Ah_Meng
Long MP? Why choose $70? Isn’t it expensive?
- Flameless Phoenix:
  I think is reasonable and there is still time and room for growth to the upside. Just my thoughts.
CatherineGunter
2025-10-07
CatherineGunter
Great analysis

Leave a comment

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Why choose $70? Isn’t it expensive?","text":"Long MP? Why choose $70? Isn’t it expensive?","html":"Long MP? Why choose $70? Isn’t it expensive?","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":486746602893848,"commentId":"486746602893848","gmtCreate":1759801733321,"gmtModify":1759803930463,"authorId":3587014559420141,"author":{"id":3587014559420141,"idStr":"3587014559420141","authorId":3587014559420141,"name":"Flameless Phoenix","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e64820a51bc95af1d616b3c081af4d0a","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":486192943067600,"objectIdStr":"486192943067600","type":1,"supId":486418856215000,"supIdStr":"486418856215000","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"I think is reasonable and there is still time and room for growth to the upside. Just my thoughts.","text":"I think is reasonable and there is still time and room for growth to the upside. Just my thoughts.","html":"I think is reasonable and there is still time and room for growth to the upside. Just my thoughts.","disclaimerType":0}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"hot","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":486492608107288,"commentId":"486492608107288","gmtCreate":1759803202037,"gmtModify":1759977035176,"authorId":9000000000000657,"author":{"id":9000000000000657,"idStr":"9000000000000657","authorId":9000000000000657,"name":"CatherineGunter","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3776235f8fbc22077e8df03b2522caf3","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":486192943067600,"objectIdStr":"486192943067600","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Great analysis","text":"Great analysis","html":"Great analysis","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/486192943067600"}