Here’s my assessment of the situation, with caveats and risk factors. (Note: this is not financial advice — just an analytical viewpoint.)

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1. Is there still upside potential after AMD jumps ~25%?

It is possible, but the risk-reward becomes more challenging. The OpenAI deal is a dramatic inflection event, and markets will now shift toward judging execution, de-risking, and sustainment rather than surprise.

Supporting arguments for further upside:

The deal is multi-year and multi-generation: AMD will supply GPUs across multiple future architectures (starting with MI450) under a 6-gigawatt commitment. 

OpenAI’s warrant gives it up to 160 million shares (roughly 10 % of AMD) at $0.01, vesting on milestones tied to share price and deployment. 

The warrant structure essentially aligns some of OpenAI’s upside with AMD shareholders: as AMD fulfills its roadmap, OpenAI (if it holds or sells gradually) stands to profit, which could help momentum. 

The market is in “bid for the winner” mode in AI semiconductors; positive news tends to drive outsized reactions.

Many analysts have already raised their price targets dramatically (e.g. Jefferies to $300) following the deal. 

Cautionary arguments (risks & constraints):

Much of the upside is already “priced in” following a sharp move; the path ahead may include greater volatility or pullbacks.

The warrant vesting is conditional: deployment, performance, and share price hurdles must be met. OpenAI must actually execute the deployments. Delays, technical issues, or weaker adoption could derail optimism. 

The tail-end tranches of warrants require very high stock prices (some disclosures suggest $600 share-price targets) which imply very high expectations. 

Valuation multiple compression is a risk: if growth disappoints or macro conditions worsen, multiples may contract sharply.

AMD still trails NVIDIA in many respects (market share, ecosystem, mindshare) — whether it can close that gap under execution risk is uncertain.

Because of the structure, there's a risk that OpenAI may sell portions of its vested shares over time, which could dampen momentum. 

Conclusion for downside vs upside: There is still potential upside, especially if AMD delivers. But the margin of safety is narrower now. Much depends on credible execution on the AI infrastructure front.

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2. AMD vs. NVIDIA: Who has more room to run?

Strengths & moat comparison

NVIDIA has a strong lead in AI/GPU architecture, deep ecosystem, strong brand, years of software, partnerships, and existing deployment scale. It is still the default “safe pick” in AI semiconductors.

AMD is now leveraging the OpenAI deal to move from underdog to credible alternative. The deal helps it close gaps in reputation and signals capabilities.

Comparative upside dynamics

NVIDIA likely continues to compound with lower downside risk (i.e. a more resilient base) because many of its strengths are entrenched.

AMD may have a higher beta — more sensitivity to positive surprises (or disappointments). If AMD executes well, it could catch up faster.

However, the “easy gains” for NVIDIA may slow over time as its lead is already valued; whereas AMD still has more room (in percentage terms) to catch up.

In a base-case scenario, I’d expect NVIDIA to be steadier, with less downside, while AMD could outperform in strong upward cycles but also face deeper drawdowns if things disappoint.

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3. Price targets (PTs) — my estimates (with assumptions)

Because much hinges on execution, my price targets are conditional and range-based.

Ticker Base Reasoning 12–18-month target range*

AMD Assuming AMD successfully delivers the milestones, captures a meaningful portion of OpenAI’s compute demand, and continues to gain credibility in AI workloads, with moderate multiple expansion $260 – $320 / share

NVIDIA NVIDIA continues to grow AI compute demand, maintain pricing power, and leverage its entrenched ecosystem $220 – $260 / share

> * These ranges depend heavily on (a) macro / interest rate environment, (b) execution, (c) multiple expansion or contraction.

Some recent analyst PTs already stretch: Jefferies raised AMD’s to $300. Others remain more conservative.

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4. Will AMD match NVIDIA’s pace toward new highs?

“Matching pace” is ambitious. NVIDIA has had years of momentum already built. For AMD to emulate that, it must consistently deliver robust results, surpass expectations, and avoid execution missteps.

Key factors that will determine whether AMD can keep up or even outpace:

1. Consistent delivery of AI GPU architecture — rollout of MI450, future generations, yields, performance, margins.

2. Customer adoption beyond OpenAI — scaling to cloud providers, enterprise, verticals.

3. Software & ecosystem — AI operations, libraries, tooling, compatibility.

4. Execution risk & timeline — delays or missteps can lead to sharp corrections.

5. Valuation sentiment & multiples — if the market demands premium multiples for AMD’s growth, that helps; if sentiment turns cautious, multiple contraction is a headwind.

If AMD delivers consistently, it could follow or even exceed NVIDIA’s pace over a multi-year timeframe. But in the shorter term, NVIDIA is more likely to set the pace and AMD to chase (with bursts of leadership on breakout news).

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Final Thoughts & Risk Caveats

The OpenAI deal is a game changer — it significantly raises the stakes and credibility of AMD in AI compute infrastructure.

But it also increases the pressure: any misstep or delay will be met with sharper downside risk.

Liquidity, leverage, macro conditions (e.g. rates, capital markets) will matter a lot.

Given the structural advantages NVIDIA still holds, AMD has a steeper climb, but also more asymmetric upside potential if execution is strong.