Barcode
10-10

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ πŸ‚πŸ‚πŸ‚πŸ‚πŸ‚πŸ‚πŸ‚πŸ‚πŸ‚πŸ‚πŸ‚ This is the 11th bull market since 1957, w/ $SPX approx. +90% & below median +108% of prior cycles.

🟒 7/10 bull markets lasted more than 3Y!

⚠️ Valuations are stretched, but not historically terminal.

This rally is more mid-cycle than late-cycle!

πŸ‚ πŸ…·πŸ…°πŸ…ΏπŸ…ΏπŸ†ˆ πŸ†ƒπŸ†πŸ…°πŸ…³πŸ…ΈπŸ…½πŸ…Ά πŸ…°πŸ…·πŸ…΄πŸ…°πŸ…³! πŸ…²πŸ…·πŸ…΄πŸ…΄πŸ†πŸ†‚, πŸ…±πŸ…²πŸ€πŸ€πŸ€

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Comments

  • PetS
    10-11
    PetS
    πŸš€The comparison with the 82–87 and 09–20 cycles is gold. $SPX hasn’t even matched the median cumulative return yet, which suggests there’s more juice left. The historical consistency of positive year 4 returns really adds conviction to the mid-cycle thesis.
  • Kiwi Tigress
    10-11
    Kiwi Tigress
    The year 4 data is what gets me. Even the shortest runs still squeezed out gains after year three, which makes this current $SPY setup feel way more like we’re in the middle innings than near a top. Love this perspective
  • Wade Shaw
    10-11
    Wade Shaw
    7/10 bulls last 3+ yearsβ€”this run could easily stretch longer!
  • Ron Anne
    10-11
    Ron Anne
    QQQ’s up 120%β€”won’t tech’s dominance make this bull fragile?
  • Phyllis Strachey
    10-11
    Phyllis Strachey
    SPX’s 90% gain is below medianβ€”mid-cycle call makes total sense!
  • Cool Cat Winston
    10-11
    Cool Cat Winston
    Except when Trump causes market implosions πŸ€·β€β™€οΈ
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