vodkalime
10-12

🐯💥 “Don't Laugh at Me”The AGL Option Fiasco Every Trader Understands 

Do you have losing trades? Yes, the mascot looks more depressed than me when I open my apps. I had earned many battle scars but getting lesser these days when I do AAR.

Yeah… that's me with my AGL

📍Disclaimer:⚠️ I'm not a licensed financial adviser. This post reflects my personal trading review and education only. Please do your own diligence, research and seek qualified professional advice before investing.

Every losing trade is an learning lesson, let review 

😭 Act 1: The Tiger Lost His Stripes

I bought an AGL 2.5 Call, cost $0.22.

Now? Worth $0.01.

Unrealized P&L: –95%.

The app literally said “GAME OVER!” 🐯💀

Let's unpack what went wrong; not just to cry together, but to learn and laugh while we're at it.

🧠 What Is AGL Anyway?

Agilon Health (AGL) is a U.S. healthcare company trying to reinvent how doctors treat seniors through value-based care — they earn per patient, not per visit.

It's a great idea… but Wall Street doesn't pay for ideas. It pays for profits.

Here's AGL's medical chart: (See Picture)

AGL isn't a total fraud — it's just a patient in critical condition hoping the U.S. healthcare system doesn't pull the plug. ⚡

🎭 The Trade Autopsy

Here's how I managed to turn a speculative bet into a masterclass in pain:

• 🎯 Bought far OTM (2.5 strike)

I basically bet that AGL would moon. Instead, it went to Mars without me — underground.

• ⌛ Time decay (Theta)

Options don't age well. Every day they lose value like milk left in the sun. 🥛☀️

• 📉 Implied Volatility Crash

When hype dies, volatility dies — and so does your premium. RIP IV 💀

• 📪 No Catalyst

AGL had no event, no earnings pop, no PR. Just slow-motion silence.

• 💀 Liquidity Desert

When it hit $0.01, I could hear tumbleweeds rolling in the options chain.

Result? My call turned into a collector's item.

Value: sentimental only.

⚖️ Risk Lesson: Option vs. Stock

Here's the real silver lining 🪙 —

Losing on an option is still better than losing the stock itself.

👉 I only lost the premium ($0.22 × contracts).

If I had bought shares, I'd be down 90%+ on the full position — a much bigger disaster.

That's the beauty (and pain) of options:

Your risk is limited, but your timing better be sharp as a scalpel. ⏱️🧠

Options = controlled explosion.

Stocks = slow bleed.

Pick your poison.[Cry]  


🩹 When (and Why) You Might Exercise a Call

Most traders never exercise options — but here's when it might actually make sense:

• The option still has intrinsic value 💰

Example: Stock is $3.50, strike is $2.50 — that’s $1 in real value.

• You plan to hold the shares long-term 📈

Exercise, take delivery, and hold if you believe in the company turnaround.

• Low liquidity / wide bid-ask 🤐

Sometimes selling the option is painful due to poor pricing.

Exercising gives you stock directly instead of selling to sharks.

But in AGL's case? There's no intrinsic value. It’s like exercising a gym membership that expired. 🏋️‍♂️


🧮 SWOT Check-up: AGL's Pulse

It's got potential, sure — but potential doesn't pay margin calls. 😬 See Picture


🧠 Lesson Time: How to Pick the Right Stock for Call Options

Here's what my scars taught me:

✅ 1. Choose stocks with momentum (volume), not miracles.

You want healthy uptrends, not hope stocks.

✅ 2. Earnings and catalysts matter.

No catalyst = no IV = no gains. Plan around events.

✅ 3. Watch implied volatility (IV).

Buy when IV is low, sell when IV is high.

If you do the opposite, you're donating. 💸

✅ 4. Check liquidity before you click.

Wide bid-ask spreads eat returns alive.

✅ 5. Stick to quality names.

Companies like $Amedisys(AMED)$ (Amedisys), $Acadia Healthcare(ACHC)$   (Acadia Healthcare), $Encompass Health Corporation(EHC)$   (Encompass Health) — they bleed less when the market sneezes. 🤧

📊 Peers Who Aren't in the ICU (See Picture)

These aren't guaranteed wins — but they move, they have volume, and most importantly, they survive.

💬 The Emotional Debrief

Here's what trading teaches —

Options don't just test your wallet, they test your soul. 😅

• If you lose a stock: you panic-sell.

• If you lose a call: you shrug, meme, and move on.

• If you win a call: you start researching Lamborghinis. 🏎️💨

And that's the paradox — you risk less, but feel more.

The key? Learn fast, lose small, laugh often.


🔮 Looking Ahead — Next Week’s “Call Doctor” Watchlist

The healthcare sector is due for a check-up. Inflation's cooling, yields stabilizing — and traders are sniffing for rebound plays.


📅 My “Doctor's Orders” for next week:

• Watch ACHC & AMED for earnings continuation setups.

• Use 3–4 week calls, delta 0.4–0.5 (not lottery tickets).

• Avoid calls under $0.10 unless you enjoy adrenaline and regret.

• Size small.

• Keep your “GAME OVER” meme folder ready just in case. 😜


🧘‍♂️ Closing Thoughts

“A wrong option is cheaper than a wrong stock —

but the lesson's price is the same if you don't learn from it.”

My AGL trade was a tuition fee in the school of volatility. 🎓

Would I do it again? Maybe.

Would I choose a better stock next time? Definitely.

Would I laugh about it? Already did. 😂

So next time your option tanks, remember —

You didn't lose everything. You just paid for market education… and earned a good story for the next meme post.

🐯✌️

@Tiger_Earnings @TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  @Terra_Incognita  @MojoStellar  @DCamel  @koolgal @TigerPicks  @Tiger_Academy  

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • MojoStellar
    10-13
    MojoStellar
    Thank you for sharing your investment write-up! I was genuinely impressed by the depth and clarity of your analysis - it’s clear you've put a lot of thought into this. Your insights are not only well-reasoned but also incredibly engaging, making the complex world of investing feel approachable and exciting. I particularly appreciate how you incorporated the SWOT analysis into your explanation. It added such a structured and comprehensive layer to your reasoning, highlighting both the opportunities and risks with precision. It's rare to see such a thorough yet concise breakdown, and it really elevated the quality of your write-up.

    Great work, and I'm looking forward to reading more of your insights in the future! [Cool] [Heart] [Call] [Like] [USD]

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