$Intel(INTC)$
Despite its AI narrative and stock surge, Intel’s fundamentals paint a bleak picture:
• Trading at 50–60× forward earnings vs peers at ~20–30×.
• Negative ROE and ROIC — destroying, not creating, value.
• Recent equity giveaways dilute shareholders while masking structural weaknesses.
• Rising inflation and high rates could crush margins and magnify refinancing risks.
In short: Intel’s rally looks more like speculative euphoria than sustainable growth. When sentiment turns, a 50–70% downside from multiple compression alone isn’t unthinkable.
⚠️ Sometimes the biggest risk isn’t missing the upside, it’s ignoring the cracks beneath it.
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