FalconCo
10-16
$Intel(INTC)$  

Despite its AI narrative and stock surge, Intel’s fundamentals paint a bleak picture:

• Trading at 50–60× forward earnings vs peers at ~20–30×.

• Negative ROE and ROIC — destroying, not creating, value.

• Recent equity giveaways dilute shareholders while masking structural weaknesses.

• Rising inflation and high rates could crush margins and magnify refinancing risks.

In short: Intel’s rally looks more like speculative euphoria than sustainable growth. When sentiment turns, a 50–70% downside from multiple compression alone isn’t unthinkable.

⚠️ Sometimes the biggest risk isn’t missing the upside, it’s ignoring the cracks beneath it.


Intel Beats Sales! Above $40, Smooth Sailing Ahead?
Intel reported better-than-expected third-quarter sales, signaling that demand for its core x86 processors for PCs has recovered.Revenue: $13.65 billion versus $13.14 billion estimated EPS: 23 cents, adjusted, not comparable to analyst estimates The report is Intel’s first since the U.S. government became the company’s top shareholder in August with a 10% stake.
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