📅 *Vol Spike and Defensive Stance – Bearish Setup in BJ* (17 Oct 2025)
The VIX just popped +23%, and this one looks real. A daily squeeze has fired, and multi-timeframe squeezes are lining up to follow — this isn’t just noise.
SPY remains stuck in last Friday’s range, IWM’s breakout is under threat, and HYG is finding resistance right at its 50-day moving average.
Financials got hit hard — **XLF** dropped nearly 3% despite solid earnings from the majors. The damage came from regionals, as **ZION** and **WAL** reported credit writedowns, echoing Dimon’s reminder earlier this week: *“there’s never just one cockroach.”*
Oil’s slide continues, and though falling yields should offer some relief, the market feels jumpy. I’m focused on protecting my +19% MTD gains and being ultra-selective here.
One setup that stands out is a **bearish bounce in BJ**, right against a Fibonacci cluster.
### 🎯 Trading Plan
- **BJ (Long Puts)**
Plan to buy Nov $100 puts. A bearish bounce setup leaning against a cluster of five Fibonacci levels — a defined-risk way to play potential downside.
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