The U.S. and Australia have signed a massive $8.5 billion rare-earth and critical-minerals deal, under which 30 key metals will flow from Australia to the United States. 🔥
Companies listed by either the Australian government or the U.S. Export-Import Bank (US EXIM) in the first-round $8.5 billion financing list saw strong moves after the Oct 21 announcement.
Each has clear 6–12 month catalysts such as final investment decisions (FID), offtake agreements, or Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) approvals.
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1️⃣ $ARAFURA RARE EARTHS LTD(ARU.AU)$ – Flagship Nolans NdPr Project
Government + US EXIM commitments: > US$300 million
Output: 4,400 tpa NdPr, 470 tpa mid/heavy REEs; mine life 38 yrs
Catalyst: FID by Q4 2025, construction 2026
2️⃣ $AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC MATERIA(ASM.AU)$ – Dubbo Rare Earth + Metallisation Plant
NSW Dubbo project (NdPr + Tb + Dy) secured A$16.4 m placement + A$15 m underwriting; applying for US EXIM US$200 m low-interest loan
Developing Korea Rare Earth Metal Plant (KREMP) for integrated “Mine → Metal” chain; target 3,000 tpa NdFeB master alloy by 2026
3️⃣ $ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED(ILU.AU)$ – Mineral Sands + Rare Earth Refining Dual Engines
WA Eneabba project: high-grade monazite; A$1.25 b government loan to build the world’s largest single REE refinery (> 20 ktpa REO)
U.S.–Australia deal adds US$200 m gallium project (Alcoa–Iluka JV), opening new defense/semiconductor track
4️⃣ $LYNAS RARE EARTHS LTD(LYC.AU)$ – Only Large-Scale REE Separator Outside China
Not directly funded this round, but U.S. DoD committed US$200 m for Malaysia LuT Plant & Texas heavy-REE facility
Potential top partner if joint U.S.–Australia fund expands
Q3 2025 NdPr output 2,923 t (record); EBITDA margin ~30% amid price recovery
5️⃣ $Alcoa Corp(AAI.AU)$ – Gallium from WA Alumina Operations
Joint application with U.S. headquarters for US$200 m equity funding to build 100 tpa high-purity gallium plant for semiconductors & defense
Gallium price rebounded from US$280 → US$420/kg; project IRR > 25%
6️⃣ Other Potential Second-Round Beneficiaries
$NORTHERN MINERALS LTD(NTU.AU)$ – Browns Range heavy REE (Tb, Dy); +11%, under due diligence by U.S.–Australia fund
$VHM LTD(VHM.AU)$ – Goschen REE-zircon project (VIC); received US EXIM LOI; +18%
$MINERAL COMMODITIES LTD(MRC.AU)$ – Skaland graphite + REE by-products; applying for IRA downstream subsidies
$PILBARA MINERALS LTD(PLS.AU)$ & $LIONTOWN RESOURCES LTD(LTR.AU)$ – lithium plays; not REEs but still eligible under IRA “critical minerals” list; may share funding pool via EV supply chains & Tesla offtake deals
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