"The empires of the future are the empires of the mind." — Winston Churchill
The Trump administration’s recent moves in the stock market—dubbed the “golden touch”—have garnered attention, with strategic equity stakes in semiconductors and rare earths yielding substantial returns. Intel’s stock surged nearly 80% after a $9 billion grant-to-equity deal, while MP Materials soared over 300% year-to-date following a $400 million Defence Department investment. Now, whispers of similar deals in quantum computing have sparked a frenzy, with stocks like IonQ, D-Wave, and Rigetti jumping 10-20% on reports of $10 million funding awards for equity stakes. Could quantum computing become the next “Trump sector”? Which firms should investors watch, who might be the administration’s next target, and will quantum technology truly reshape the world within 20 years? Let’s dive in.
Quantum Computing: The Next “Trump Sector”?
The administration’s playbook—converting federal grants into equity stakes to secure U.S. dominance in critical industries—has already reshaped the semiconductor and rare earths sectors. Quantum computing, with its potential to revolutionise cryptography, AI, drug discovery, and defence applications like non-satellite navigation, is a natural fit. The Department of Commerce’s CHIPS Research and Development Office is reportedly negotiating with firms like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, Quantum Computing Inc., and Atom Computing for at least $10 million per deal in exchange for equity. This mirrors the Intel deal (10% stake for $8.9 billion) and MP Materials (15% for $400 million), which drove massive market gains.
The market’s reaction speaks volumes: IonQ surged 11-13%, D-Wave 19-20%, and Rigetti 13-14% in a single day on the news, adding billions to their collective market cap. Social media platforms like X are abuzz, with users calling it a “quantum leap” for the sector, tying it to Trump’s broader push against China’s tech ambitions. However, a Commerce Department source has pushed back, labelling the reports “inaccurate,” which adds some uncertainty. Still, the 2018 National Quantum Initiative Act’s $1.2 billion framework suggests more funding could flow, potentially cementing quantum as a cornerstone of Trump’s industrial policy. Risks include government overreach stifling innovation or geopolitical retaliation, but the upside—strategic and financial—makes quantum a prime candidate for the next “Trump sector.”
Betting on Early-Stage Quantum Firms
Investing in early-stage quantum companies is not for the faint-hearted. The sector’s market size is modest (~$300 million in 2024, projected to hit $4 billion by 2030), and technical hurdles like qubit stability and error correction persist. Yet, government backing could de-risk these ventures, much like Intel and MP Materials saw explosive gains post-deal. For diversified exposure, the Defiance Quantum ETF (up 32% YTD) is a safer play, but let’s examine key players:
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IonQ ( $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ ): A leader in trapped-ion quantum tech, with partnerships at Microsoft and AWS. Up ~150% YTD, its cloud-based revenue and scalability make it a top pick, though big tech competition looms.
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Rigetti Computing ( $Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ ): Specialising in superconducting qubits, it’s in active government talks and operates a U.S.-based fab. Down ~10% YTD before the recent surge, it’s riskier but promising for hybrid quantum-classical systems.
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D-Wave Quantum ( $D-Wave Quantum Inc.(QBTS)$ ): Focused on quantum annealing for optimisation, with clients like Lockheed Martin. It’s a 20% spike post-news highlights near-term potential, but it’s less versatile for universal computing.
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Quantum Computing Inc. ( $Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ ): Uses photon-based systems, potentially more stable long-term. Up 10% on the news but volatile (down 10% YTD overall), it’s a speculative bet with undervalued upside.
IonQ stands out for its maturity and ecosystem, but investors should allocate cautiously—IBM’s 2029 target for practical quantum systems underscores that breakthroughs are still years away.
Trump’s Next Pick: Who’s on Deck?
The administration’s pattern—targeting sectors vital for U.S. security and economic edge—offers clues about its next move. Beyond chips (Intel), rare earths (MP Materials, Lithium Americas), and quantum, Trump’s policies favour domestic manufacturing, energy, and tech via lower taxes, deregulation, and tariffs. Likely candidates include:
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Battery/Energy Storage: Eos Energy ($EOSE), a U.S.-based zinc battery firm for grid storage, aligns with energy independence goals. Analysts project a 218% return in 2025, making it a “Trump stock” to watch.
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AI/Robotics: A public AI or robotics firm (e.g., a Boston Dynamics peer) could bolster automation amid labour restrictions.
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Biotech/Pharma: A U.S. player in mRNA or gene editing could secure health tech supply chains against tariff-driven import risks.
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Space/Defence: Rocket Lab, a public space tech firm, fits the mould for satellite or navigation tech.
Energy storage or advanced materials seem the most likely next targets, given their strategic weight and market enthusiasm for “Trump trades.”
Quantum Computing: The Next Big Thing in 20 Years?
Quantum computing’s potential is staggering—think faster drug discovery, optimised financial models, unbreakable encryption, and AI breakthroughs. By 2045, it could generate $28-72 billion in value (McKinsey) or even $250 billion (Bain), with applications spanning materials science to national security. Experts peg useful applications by 2035-2040, assuming qubit scaling accelerates. Current systems are error-prone, and full “quantum supremacy” might take until 2050, but IBM’s 2029 goal for practical machines and hybrid quantum-AI setups suggests earlier wins.
On social media, excitement is palpable, though some warn of risks like quantum breaking Bitcoin’s encryption (necessitating upgrades). Within 20 years, quantum won’t replace classical computing but will dominate for intractable problems, much like AI today. Government investment could be the catalyst to get there.
Final Reflections
Trump’s “golden touch” isn’t just luck—it’s a calculated strategy to leverage federal muscle for U.S. tech supremacy, with quantum computing as a logical next frontier. The market’s euphoria reflects this, but investors must tread carefully: quantum’s promise is real, but its timeline is long, and government involvement could bring oversight or distortions. For policymakers, the challenge is balancing intervention with innovation; for investors, it’s picking winners in a volatile race. As Churchill’s quote suggests, the future belongs to those mastering the “empires of the mind”—and quantum computing, with Trump’s backing or not, is poised to lead that charge.
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