Weekly: A Strong October End? APEC, Tech earnings, Fed meeting

Last Week's Recap

U.S. Market - All-Time Highs

• Indexes: All major U.S. indexes surged to record highs on Friday, capping a strong week driven by a cooler inflation print and robust corporate earnings. The S&P 500 topped $6,800 and gained over 2% for the week, while the Nasdaq and Dow also notched their second winning week in a row despite midweek volatility.

• CPI: September CPI came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations for rate cuts at both remaining Fed meetings this year. Headline CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 3.0% YoY, while core CPI advanced 0.2% MoM and 3.0% YoY.

• Earnings season: Remains the dominant short-term driver, with some official macro prints delayed.The earnings beats seen this third-quarter reporting season are driving higher-than-average equity returns, according to Barclays.

• Oil prices: Crude rallied sharply, logging its biggest weekly gain since June. New U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers fueled supply concerns and lifted Brent above $65 per barrel.

• Gold prices: Gold saw sharp swings, falling over 3% past week after a stunning 50% year-to-date rally that pushed prices near record highs around $4,400/oz. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold to reach $4,440 in Q1 2026 and $5,055 by late 2026, citing strong safe-haven demand and structural central bank buying.

U.S. Sectors & Stocks — Earnings Firepower Lifts Wall Street

• Sectors: Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended higher, as softer inflation and upbeat earnings boosted sentiment. Energy (+2.7%) outperformed on rising oil prices, while Tech and Cyclicals led overall gains. Financials climbed as rate-cut bets lifted bank stocks.

• Tesla (TSLA): Reported record revenue but declining profits and cautious guidance weighed on shares. EPS missed some analyst estimates, sending the stock lower.

• General Motors (GM): Soared nearly 20% to a record high after crushing Q3 estimates, raising guidance, and cutting its expected 2025 tariff impact. GM also said Google Gemini AI will begin rolling out in its vehicles next year.

• Netflix (NFLX): Delivered mixed results, revenue in line, but earnings missed. Netflix blamed the earnings shortfall on expenses related to a tax dispute with Brazilian authorities. The shares tank nearly 9%

• Intel (INTC): Beat Q3 expectations on both revenue and EPS, driven by AI demand and PC recovery. Shares briefly topped $40 before pulling back.

• Coca-Cola (KO): Beat forecasts and reaffirmed full-year organic revenue growth guidance, prompting a modest rally.

• Ford (F): Jumped 16% after posting record Q3 revenue and reinstating its dividend. Despite cutting full-year guidance due to aluminum shortages, investors viewed results as resilient.

• IBM (IBM): Surged over 9% to record highs after beating on both top and bottom lines. CEO Arvind Krishna said its AI business reached $9.5B, up from $3B last year, though Red Hat growth slowed to 14%.

• GE Aerospace (GE): Reported a 44% EPS gain and 26% revenue growth, both above consensus, and raised full-year guidance. Shares hit new highs amid defense demand strength.

• General Electric Vernova (GEV): Slipped 2.60% despite strong Q3 results, as investors digested its $5.28 billion acquisition of Prolec GE.

• Alcoa (AA): Spiked 9% on better-than-expected earnings, boosted by rising aluminum prices and tight supply, despite tariff-related cost headwinds.

• Vertiv (VRT): Climbed to new highs after beating Q3 expectations and raising Q4 guidance, reflecting continued strength in data center infrastructure demand.

• Beyond Meat (BYND): Skyrocketed 238% amid a short squeeze and expanded Walmart distribution, despite ongoing profitability concerns.

• Airlines: Mixed week — American Airlines (AAL) posted a smaller-than-expected loss and raised Q4 guidance, while Southwest (LUV) surprised with a profit but fell on guidance, and Alaska Air (ALK) missed expectations.

• MedTech: Boston Scientific (BSX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), and Danaher (DHR) all beat expectations. ISRG surged 22% on 20% procedure growth, while BSX and DHR closed the week in green.

• Defense Giants: RTX (RTX) and Lockheed Martin (LMT) both released beat-and-raise reports. Earnings for both contractors rose while analysts expected declines, with sales growth across the board for their various business segments due to "unprecedented" demand, particularly for jets, missile systems and engines. RTX jumped to record highs, but LMT slided.

Hong Kong Market - Tech Stocks Led Gains

• HSI: The Hang Seng Index rose 3.6% for the week, led by tech and lithium names, after China pledged to accelerate efforts toward technological self-reliance and domestic market expansion under its new five-year plan.

• CATL (3750.HK): Jumped 6.1% after reporting a 41% YoY rise in Q3 net profit, driven by strong EV battery demand and continued global expansion.

• Alibaba (9988.HK): Gained 2.3% as optimism around China’s economic stimulus measures and resilient corporate earnings buoyed sentiment.

• Pop Mart (9992.HK): Slumped 16.3% as investors questioned the sustainability of its Q3 growth momentum despite solid revenue results.

Singapore Market - STI Rallied on Trade Hopes

• STI: Climbed 2.2% for the week, lifted by optimism ahead of the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting, which fueled hopes of easing trade tensions.

• Inflation: Singapore’s core CPI rose 0.4% YoY in September, above expectations, while headline CPI climbed 0.7%, signaling persistent but moderate inflationary pressure.

• DBS Forecast: DBS Group Research projected that Singapore’s GDP could double by 2040, with the STI approaching 10,000 and the Singapore dollar potentially reaching parity with the U.S. dollar.

• Policy Outlook: Authorities announced plans to roll out new measures next month to support listed companies, enhance shareholder value, and boost investor engagement.

Australian Market - ASX 200 Extended Gains

• XJO: The ASX 200 gained 0.3% for the week, marking its second consecutive weekly advance.

• Energy Stocks: Rallied as U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers stoked supply concerns. Beach Energy (BPT) surged 15%, and Woodside (WDS) climbed 10%.

• Miners: The big miners also strengthened, supported by higher commodity prices.

• Critical Minerals: Continued their bull run, with Mineral Resources (MIN) up 7.5% and IGO (IGO) up 9.4%, extending strong momentum across lithium and rare-earth producers.

The Week Ahead

Macro Factors - APEC Hopes, Fed Focus and Earnings

• APEC Summit: Global markets head into the week with optimism as U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping prepare to meet at the APEC summit. U.S. stock market is on pace to wrap up a strong October.

• FOMC: All eyes are also on the Fed) which convenes this week amid growing signs of economic resilience but moderating inflation. Investors will parse Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tone for clues on whether the central bank will hint at a December rate cut or maintain its “data-dependent” stance as the economy absorbs mixed labor and inflation signals.

• Government Shutdown: Federal workers missed their first paychecks last week, and the closure has officially become the second-longest in U.S. history, trailing only the 35-day standoff in 2018. Bank of America analysts noted that private-sector data suggest the job market is “at best holding steady and at worst slightly deteriorating” since the shutdown began.

Earnings

• Mega-Cap Tech: The coming week marks the climax of the Q3 earnings season, with Big Tech giants Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META) all set to release results. These reports will be a litmus test for the sustainability of the AI-driven rally that has dominated markets in 2025. Investors will focus on cloud growth, AI monetization progress, and forward guidance — key drivers of sector momentum.

• Energy Heavyweights: Four of the five global energy majors — ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Shell (SHEL), and TotalEnergies (TTE) — are also slated to report. Recent oil price volatility and geopolitical risks will put their upstream margins and capital discipline under the microscope.

• Broader Earnings Landscape: The earnings backdrop remains robust. Of the roughly 145 S&P 500 firms that have reported so far, 84% have topped EPS expectations, per FactSet. The blended profit growth rate for Q3 stands at +9%, marking one of the strongest quarters since early 2022. Upcoming results from UnitedHealth (UNH), Verizon (VZ), and Southern Company (SO) will provide further clues on consumer health and corporate cost trends.