Markets remain buoyant ahead of the Fed’s expected 25-bps rate cut, with Wall Street’s record run driven by AI and tech heavyweights such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple. Nvidia, in particular, is in focus as it edges toward a $5 trillion valuation, boosted by optimism over chip demand and potential easing of U.S.–China export curbs. However, market breadth is thin—tech giants dominate gains while cyclical and defensive sectors lag—so a short-term correction risk is building. I’m watching Nvidia (NVDA) closely for a breakout continuation above resistance with strong volume confirmation, and Microsoft (MSFT) for potential earnings-driven volatility. On the other hand, I’m avoiding overextended small-cap AI plays and profit-taking in stretched semiconductor names like AMD, where upside may already be priced in. For positioning, I’m partially in cash (around 40–50%) to preserve flexibility while maintaining selective exposure to leading momentum names. If the Fed signals further rate cuts or a dovish tone, I’ll scale in gradually; but if Powell’s comments hint at caution, I’ll stay defensive and look to re-enter on dips.
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