Sarohiwal
11-07
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  


PLTR: Valuation is very high: Analysts note that Palantir’s forward price‐to‐earnings (P/E) ratio is extremely large (e.g., ~245×) compared to typical software companies.  If growth slows, a high valuation can amplify downside.

2. Is growth sustainable? Some argue that Palantir’s pace may be near a peak, so maintaining dramatic growth becomes harder. 

3. Heavy reliance on government & defense: While Palantir has been expanding its commercial segment, a large portion of its revenue still comes from government/defense contracts. That can be good (stable, large deals) but also means exposure to budget changes, policy shifts, and political risk. 

4. Stock expectations may already be baked in: With strong recent performance and raised outlooks, much of the optimism might already be reflected in the stock price—leaving less room for surprise upside and more risk of disappointment.

Here are some possible scenarios:

• Best case: Palantir continues to deliver strong growth, keeps winning big contracts (government + commercial), expands its AI platform into new industries, and begins to justify its high valuation. In that case, it could see solid upside from here.

• Base case: Growth remains good but slows somewhat (which is normal as companies get larger). The stock might drift sideways or modestly up if growth is steady but not explosive.

• Worst case: Growth disappoints (due to missed contracts, slower commercial expansion, or weaker global conditions), or valuation comes under pressure. In that scenario, the stock could suffer a significant drop even if the company is still doing okay.


• On average, many analysts give Palantir a “Hold” rating. 

• The average 12-month price target ranges around US$140-160 (depending on source) which may be below or only modestly above current levels (meaning limited expected upside). 

• Some more bullish analysts raise targets higher if they believe Palantir can deliver on its commercial pipeline and AI opportunities. But these are counterbalanced by concerns over valuation and execution.  


Big Short on War vs. Palantir Rebound: Which Side Are You On?
After shutting down his hedge fund, Michael Burry has launched a paid Substack newsletter where he details his increasingly pessimistic view of artificial intelligence. Burry argues that, much like the dot-com bubble, investors are extrapolating exponential growth & overlooking profitability concerns. He remains openly bearish on key AI momentum names such as Nvidia and Palantir. Are Nvidia and Palantir overvalued relative to their long-term earnings potential? Is the current AI boom comparable to the dot-com bubble—or fundamentally different?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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