JD.com (JD) New Business Losses To Watch. Narrow Loss Might Give Bullish Run.

$JD.com(JD)$ is expected to release its unaudited fiscal Q3 2025 earnings on Thursday, November 13, 2025, before the U.S. market opens.

JD Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis & Expectations

Analyst consensus suggests a mixed picture, with expectations of solid revenue growth but significant pressure on profitability due to increased investment in new initiatives.

The key narrative for this quarter is the trade-off between market share gains (through the new food delivery venture and competitive retail pricing) and short-term margin compression.

JD Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

JD.com released its unaudited financial results for the second quarter of 2025 (covering April 1 to June 30, 2025) on Thursday, August 14, 2025.

The results were characterized by robust top-line growth driven by market share gains and new business initiatives, but a significant decline in non-GAAP profit due to heavy investment.

Key Financial Highlights (Q2 2025 vs. Q2 2024)

Operational Takeaways

Core Retail Strength:

• JD Retail Revenue: Grew by 20.6% YoY.

• JD Retail Operating Margin: Improved to 4.5% from 3.9% in Q2 2024, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of gross margin expansion. This indicates the core e-commerce business is highly efficient and improving its profitability.

Investment in New Businesses (The Profit Drag):

• Revenues from New Businesses (driven primarily by the newly launched Food Delivery segment) tripled (up 199%) YoY.

• Crucially, the Non-GAAP Operating Loss from New Businesses widened significantly to RMB 14.8 Billion. This massive investment in gaining market share in food delivery and on-demand retail was the primary cause of the overall profit decline.

User Growth:

• Quarterly Active Customers and user shopping frequency both grew over 40% YoY, a major win, largely attributed to the food delivery and lower-tier market initiatives (Jingxi).

Lesson Learned from Q2 2025 Guidance

While JD does not typically provide explicit revenue/EPS forecasts, the management commentary and strategic disclosures provided a clear direction and a crucial lesson for investors:

The Lesson: Long-Term Growth Trumps Short-Term Profit in the Face of Strategic Market Expansion

The guidance and commentary clearly communicated that JD is prioritizing strategic market expansion and user acquisition over short-term GAAP profitability, and investors need to adjust their valuation model accordingly.

The Q2 earnings and guidance told the market: "We are taking a profit hit now to secure our future market position against competitors. Our core business is healthy, but the path to overall profitability is temporarily sacrificed for strategic growth."

The market's reaction going forward will depend on whether JD can show improving efficiency in that new business segment (as expected in the upcoming Q3 report).

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch

Investors should look beyond the headline EPS and revenue numbers to understand the underlying health of JD's core business and the trajectory of its new ventures.

1. JD Retail's Performance (Core Business Health)

• Retail Revenue Growth: Look for growth rates in the core JD Retail segment, especially in General Merchandise versus Electronics and Home Appliances. The latter may face a high base effect from a major national subsidy program that started in Q3 2024.

• JD Retail Operating Margin: This is a crucial metric. Analysts expect an improvement of percentage points year-over-year. A surprise to the upside or downside here will heavily influence sentiment, as it reflects the success of their efficiency and cost control measures in the core e-commerce business.

2. New Business Profitability & Unit Economics

• Food Delivery Business Losses: This is the primary drag on overall profitability. Investors will be scrutinizing the absolute loss amount and the unit economics (UE) of the food delivery segment. Any indication that the losses are narrowing quarter-over-quarter and that the UE is improving will be a significant positive signal for the stock.

• Cross-Selling/Synergies: Look for management commentary on how the food delivery business is driving traffic or cross-selling opportunities into the core JD Retail business.

3. User Metrics and Competition

• Annual Active Customer Accounts: A sign of market penetration and overall user stickiness.

• Average Order Value (AOV): While not always directly reported, management commentary on AOV can indicate if competition (especially from discount-focused rivals) is forcing them to focus on lower-priced, lower-margin items.

• Market Share Commentary: Updates on the competitive landscape and JD's strategy against rivals like Alibaba and PDD Holdings will be critical.

JD (JD) Price Target

Based on 11 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for JD in the last 3 months. The average price target is $40.05 with a high forecast of $50.50 and a low forecast of $28.00. The average price target represents a 26.70% change from the last price of $31.61.

Potential Scenarios for Short-Term Trading

Given the market's focus on the decline in Non-GAAP EPS due to investment in new businesses, the stock's short-term movement will likely be driven by a surprise in one of two areas:

Key Technical Consideration: The stock's valuation is considered low relative to competitors by some analysts (forward P/E of x for JD vs. x for peers). This low valuation may limit downside if the results are merely in-line with expectations, making it more sensitive to positive surprises.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We can see that the bears are in control as JD have suffered a pretty significant decline since beginning of November, though RSI momentum remains positive, but it is trading below the 50-day EMA level, so investors might be looking at the losses which JD.com have suffered in their new business, the Food Delivery.

If the losses reported come out narrower than expectations, then we might see investors sentiment coming back and bullish on JD share price, but if the losses is wider, then a selloff would be possible.

Summary

JD.com (JD) is expected to report its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings on November 13, 2025.

Consensus forecasts anticipate a Revenue increase of approximately 12.8% YoY (to around RMB 293.8 Billion), driven by continued momentum in core JD Retail and the scaling of the new Food Delivery business. However, Non-GAAP EPS is projected to decline sharply, potentially over 80% YoY, due to heavy, intentional investment in acquiring market share and scaling the highly-subsidized Food Delivery venture.

Key Metrics to Watch:

New Business Losses: The absolute dollar value of the loss in the Food Delivery segment. A narrowing loss QoQ (improving Unit Economics) would signal efficiency gains and be a strong positive catalyst.

JD Retail Margin: Look for continued expansion in the core retail operating margin. This segment is the cash cow funding the new investments.

Short-Term Trading Opportunity: The stock's post-earnings movement will be driven by the magnitude of the Food Delivery loss. A smaller-than-expected loss could lead to a significant bullish reaction, validating the long-term strategic plan.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think JD.com would be able to narrow its losses in the Food Delivery segment and trigger a bullish sentiment from investors.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.