RabBird
11-14

$NBIS 20260618 80.0 PUT$ 

NovemBEAR has arrived 🐻📉

I’ve been preparing for a bear market for a while now — tightening risk, trimming exposure, and keeping an eye on the cracks forming beneath the shiny surface. And now November shows up living up to its name… NovemBEAR.

But here’s the real debate:

Are we entering an actual bear season 🐻❄️… or just going through a healthy correction 🔧📉?

Right now, I’m leaning towards the latter.

Even though Michael Burry closed down Scion Asset Management, I still share many of the same concerns he’s been beating the drum about:

• AI concentration is reaching uncomfortable levels 🤖🔥

A handful of mega-caps are carrying the entire market. When leadership becomes that narrow, the whole structure starts to wobble.

• Valuations are feeling frothy 💨💰

Not dot-com bubble territory… but definitely stretched. One slip in earnings or guidance and reactions become exaggerated.

• Liquidity isn’t what it used to be 💧⚠️

Dealer positioning, treasury supply, and the constant yield tug-of-war mean volatility can explode out of nowhere.

So yes — I’ve been bracing for a bear.

🐻

Let's have a discussion on the below questions to seek clarity as a community on where the market is potentially heading:

• Is this a healthy shakeout before the next leg up?

• How sustainable is a rally driven by only a handful of AI names?

• Are markets pricing perfection in a world that’s far from perfect?

• And most importantly — what does true diversification look like in a narrative-dominated market?

Winning Trades
Share your positions with us! This is a column where you can find the winning trades of our fellow tigers. There probably are a few potential opportunities that you may have overlooked.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Venus Reade
    11-14
    Venus Reade
    Huge short interest now on Nebius - as high as 35 percent on the institutional exchanges. Short squeeze coming...

    • RabBird
      High short interest always gets attention, but context matters — it can mean fuel for a squeeze or simply justified bearish conviction. I’m positioned based on the fundamentals and price structure, and so far the $80 put thesis remains intact!
  • Merle Ted
    11-14
    Merle Ted
    I bought this at 80 then I added more at 120 hahahaha I hope back at 120 soon.

    • RabBird
      I’m riding puts, so we’re rooting for different weather forecasts 😄 but all the best!
  • PeteLeacock
    11-14
    PeteLeacock
    AI-driven rallies feel like tightrope walking without safety nets [看跌]
  • JackQuant
    11-14
    JackQuant
    Wow, nice profits!
    • RabBird
      Thank you and best of luck trading. Remember, trade fundamentals, not feelings!
    • RabBird
      Thank you, trade the market fundamentals, not the feelings!
Leave a comment
8
4