First, I'm optimistic about Alibaba's AI push. $Alibaba(09988)$  $Alibaba(BABA)$ The company is revamping its "Tongyi" app and positioning the upgraded "Qwen" model to directly take on leading global chatbots. What stands out to me is that Alibaba isn't just building a model — it's integrating AI into its e-commerce ecosystem, especially on Taobao. This shift toward agent-style AI for consumers could finally give Alibaba a more visible AI monetisation path, which the market has been waiting for.

However, I'm still cautious about assuming this alone will send the stock back to $190. Execution risk is real: Alibaba still trails some local competitors in consumer-AI adoption, and turning AI traffic into meaningful revenue is not easy in China's pricing environment. On top of that, China tech sentiment, regulatory uncertainty, and strong competition all remain barriers. So while AI upgrades add upside, hitting $190 would require more than product improvements — it'll need strong earnings, clear proof of monetisation, and a recovery in overall China-tech sentiment.

In summary, I like Alibaba's direction and think the Qwen upgrade improves its long-term positioning. But for the stock to reach $190, I view it as an optimistic scenario rather than the base case. I see Alibaba as having upside potential driven by AI, but still dependent on broader market conditions and consistent execution.

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community.

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